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Research on the Size of Strategic Petroleum Reserve of China Based on System Dynamics

Author: WangXiangQing
Tutor: ZhouDeQun
School: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Strategic Petroleum Reserve System Dynamics System Simulation Reserve scale Margin calls strategy
CLC: F426.22
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 126
Quote: 1
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Abstract


The oil is to protect the national economy to the smooth development of important strategic resource , oil supply security is directly related to the sustained and healthy development of China's national economy , but also related to the stability and development of the society . In recent years , the international price of oil is very unstable , the international trend continued turmoil in China's oil import dependency rising , resulting in an extremely severe situation of China's oil security , oil security is more and more the attention of government and community . Strategic Petroleum Reserve as to ensure oil security strategy means many countries adopted . China has also launched in 2004, the national strategic oil reserve plan . In this paper, a system dynamics simulation study of the scale of China 's strategic oil reserves . First , on the basis of the literature on the concept of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and is described in detail , and describes the current situation of the domestic and foreign strategic oil reserves , analysis of the world and the status quo of China's oil supply and demand ; then analyzes the influencing factors of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve , and select some important factors to build a system dynamics model of the relationship between the various factors ; were followed oil prices and dependence on oil imports for the simulation variables designed two programs to study for the next two decades of the size of the strategic Petroleum Reserve , in the second kinds of programs , depending on the future economic development speed design of future high-speed economic , smooth , low-speed development of the three scenarios ; Finally, a comparative analysis of simulation results to draw conclusions and put forward a number of policy recommendations , and the construction of China 's strategic oil reserves .

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