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Empirical Research on the Factors Driving the Rising of House Price in Chinese Cities

Author: WangZuoQiong
Tutor: DaiYiYi
School: Xiamen University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Housing prices Simultaneous equations Empirical research
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 245
Quote: 2
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Abstract


Since the reform and opening up , especially since the implementation of housing reform policy , China's real estate industry has been rapid development , the housing industry is to become a new economic growth point and consumption hot spots. However, in the market prospered behind China's housing market, there are also soaring prices and high and other serious problems . In this regard, countries in recent years has introduced a series of macro-control policies , but most with little success. Therefore, using scientific methods to study the quantitative analysis of the main factors affecting price volatility and its impact on the price , and then guide the country's macro -control, to guide the healthy development of the housing industry becomes very urgent. By analyzing housing price formation mechanism, sort out the various influencing factors and price between the direct and indirect relationships, and housing prices from the housing supply and demand interaction with the perspective of econometric models to analyze the impact of various factors on the price extent . In the country , Beijing , Shanghai and Tianjin, the housing market after a comparative analysis , the following conclusions : First, the impact of interest rates on housing prices there is a lag in the short term its influence is not significant. Second, the increase in the proportion of the urban population and housing cost increases is to promote the country, Beijing and Tianjin, a major factor in rising house prices . Among them, the country as a whole , the proportion of urban population increase is the primary factor in the increase in installation cost is a secondary factor ; Tianjin , the proportion of urban population increase is the primary factor , the premium increase is a secondary factor ; for Beijing , the premium increase is the primary factor , the imbalance of supply and demand structure is a secondary factor. Third, the Shanghai housing market there is a serious imbalance in supply and demand structure , it is the leading Shanghai housing prices in the first place. In addition, the empirical results also show that speculation is not a phenomenon exists in the country , more serious in Tianjin and Shanghai , in Beijing speculative phenomenon is relatively small. Finally, on the basis of this conclusion , the paper on the national and local government 's macro-control policies put forward some suggestions.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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