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Macroscopic Factors on the Housing Prices Volatility

Author: ChenXiaoZuo
Tutor: TianChengShi
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Price fluctuations Macroeconomic VAR model Panel data model
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 178
Quote: 0
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Abstract


As an indispensable material condition, real estate provides an important and basic elements for economic development. The close relationship between the national economy and the development of real estate determines the basic position of the real estate industry. For real estate cannot be easy to transfer, it shows significant geographical differences, so economic environment and national policies are easy to make fluctuations, which shows its instability. The fast rising real estate prices makes it become the focal point, and the government also developed related policies to regulate and control the real estate market. Especially, the implementation of the pilot property tax for Shanghai, Chongqing makes the housing prices a hot topic.Compared with other developed countries the development of China’s real estate market is late still in immature stage. Therefore, face the reality of the rising house prices, macro-economic development point of view of the real estate industry is particularly important, theoretical and empirical analysis the price fluctuations in the real estate industry and macro-economic relationship,and use macro-controls and give full run to the real estate market means the market for China’s economic development plays an important role.At present, studies for the relationship of price volatility of the real estate industry and macroeconomic variables focused on the whole level, rarely involved for the differences between various regions. Depending on the results in the existing research, this paper built from the VAR model on our macroeconomic point of view of price fluctuations in the country to analyze its impact, and use panel data of China’s various provinces of the region’s macroeconomic impact of price fluctuations of the building panel model. Through the region show the whole Classification analysis the degree of the macroeconomic situation of price fluctuations.This paper attempts to use demonstration to analyst from the following ways: for the whole national, the housing price fluctuations in the macroeconomic variables impact in the relationship (economic growth, inflation, income, employment), and make establishment of VAR model. And make empirical analysis of panel data from different region of the perspective of China’s provinces between price volatility and macroeconomic variables. According to different region use cluster analysis methods to make regional division, respectively from the analysis of different types of panel empirical results. Because lack of the quarterly or daily date of housing price fluctuations from the macro-perspective so this paper use quarterly data to research the relationship of the basis of price volatility and macroeconomic variables by the VAR model.Through the reach of situation of price fluctuations, this paper reached the following conclusions on China’s real estate industry:the overall perspective of the country VAR model analysis shows that the macroeconomic variables on the impact of large fluctuations, so housing price volatility of macroeconomic factors has certain significance. Price" fluctuations in short-term effect by itself larger, comparatively to by the impact of macroeconomic variables there is a certain lag. But its impact cannot be ignored, the macroeconomic factors on the impact of price fluctuations, the impact of inflation largest, followed by employment, per capita income and overall economic development. There are different levels of response by Panel data model comes to different regions of China price fluctuations of the spontaneous effect of different affected by macroeconomic factors. Regional price differences exist some similarity that in the short term rates by a larger short term effects of their own, current price levels and per capita income greater stimulation of current prices, and employment and economic development greater long-term effects.We cannot ignore the macroeconomic fluctuations of the overall price violate. The imbalance of macro-economic shows different impact on the real estate price, so study the housing price volatility of the overall and regional integration have some significance, based on the paper concludes above this paper raise some macro-economic policy recommendations.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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