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Research of Ship Investment Decision Theory and Method Based on Compound Options Theory

Author: YangLinDa
Tutor: LvJing
School: Dalian Maritime University
Course: Technology Economics and Management
Keywords: Ship investment Investment decision-making Real options Compound real options Binomial tree
CLC: F550
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 188
Quote: 5
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Abstract


Ship Industry is a service industry of intensive capital and high risk.Ship investment,as one of the most important strategic activities in the shipping business activities enterprises,is related to the overall production and operation of the shipping business,as well as the changes in the fleet structure and transport capacity.The decision-making of ship investment has a direct impact on the entire process from the purchase of ships to the operation management and the future operating efficiency of the shipping companies.The traditional decision-making of investment in shipping industry based on DCF has a lot of weaknesses.For example,it is difficult to set a proper discount rate; the estimation of cash flow is often inaccurate;the management involved is not flexible.As a result,it ignores the real options value of such investment and underestimates the true value,which in turn inevitably leads to wrong decisions.Based on the researches of domestic and foreign,this article further studied the compound options of ship investment.This article mainly studies the following two kinds of compound options:One was produced by the gradual characteristic of ship investment.This article established the sequence compound option model and proved the value of the options through the case analysis.The other one was the combination compound option which was produced by the characteristic of multiple options of ship investment.This article also analyzed the value of options through the cases,and drew the conclusion:the ship investment project faced with multiple options has a greater value because of the compound options.In addition,this article also simulated the fluctuation rate though Monte-Carlo simulation and the software of Crystal Ball,which also provided the direction for future research.Finally,this article summarized the conclusion and proposed the deficiency of the paper and direction of future research.

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CLC: > Economic > Transportation and economic > Sea transport and economic > Waterway transport economic theory
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