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RMB real effective output effect of exchange rate changes

Author: ZhouMingYuan
Tutor: GanXingZuo
School: Fudan University
Course: Finance
Keywords: real effective exchange rate Yangtze River Delta region output VAR
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 173
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Abstract


Exchange rate is an important research field of finance. The impact of exchange rate on-output is an important part of the exchange rate research. The objective evaluation of the impact of exchange rate on output and the effective decision support to the exchange rate policies can be provided by doing quantitative analysis with the Macroeconomic Model that using the exchange rate of a country or region, output and other macroeconomic data. The impact of exchange rate on one or more country’s output had become the domestic and foreign scholars’research focus for a long period. They had done thorough and careful researchs on the mechanism and empirical methods of the impact of exchange rate on output. But there are not researches for specific areas such as Yangtze River Delta region. The article will do research on the impact of exchange rate on Yangtze River Delta region’s output based on the results of previous studies, and then make the policy recommendations with the research conclusion.Mundell-Fleming Model integration into the international balance of payments equilibrium and do research of the realization for open economy internal and external balance. It had been used a lot in the research of impact of exchange rate on output. VAR model is one of the most convenient models to deal with a number of related economic indicators and forecasting. Scholars need to add many control variables when they do research on the impact of exchange rate on output. So this model had been widely used. The paper will build the model framework with Mundell-Fleming Model and use the VAR model to do the research, the main work is as follows:1. The paper did literature research on various aspects of the impact of exchange rate on output and made the conclusion of the impact mechanism and empirical methods.2. The paper built the VAR model framework based on the Mundell-Fleming Model, did the empirical research on the impact of real effective exchange rate on Yangtze River Delta region’s output with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Granger causality test, Johansen cointegration test, VAR model regression analysis, Impulse Response Analysis and Variance decomposition.3. According to the characteristics of the Yangtze River Delta Industry, the paper chose the Textiles, Chemicals, Machinery industries to do empirical research on the impact of real effective exchange rate on Yangtze River Delta region’s industry output. The paper explained the impact of real effective exchange rate on Yangtze River Delta region’s output from the role of industry channels.4. The paper made the conclusion of the empirical research and provided the relevant policy recommendations

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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