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Research on the Urban Population Structural Changes and Housing Demand

Author: HeWenYan
Tutor: LiangQiuSheng
School: Hebei Normal
Course: Population, Resources and Environmental Economics
Keywords: The size of the population Family size Family type Demand for housing
CLC: C913.31
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 677
Quote: 3
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Abstract


In today's society, with the rapid economic development, people's living standard rising, the demand for housing is also more diverse. To provide supply on demand is the most efficient method of real estate regulation, therefore, it has important practical significance to study the demand for housing. Housing as people \The demand is a subjective wishes, will be influenced by many factors, uncertainty. Changes in the population has a relatively stable, so, from the point of view of the demographic changes demand for housing is a basic research perspective, and can provide a reference for the development of the city's real estate and economic development planning. This paper-based data analysis, forecast the development trend of the future housing needs of the city from the point of view of the demographic changes. First, in the case of constant other factors affecting the demand for housing, on the basis of analysis of population size and population structure of Shijiazhuang City, Shijiazhuang City housing forecast 2020 demand. Shijiazhuang City, the fifth census in 2000, demographic analysis techniques most commonly used sub-element of prediction methods - age shift algorithm by projections of births, deaths and other elements of the population changes and predict the trend of changes in population size. Second, due to the consumption of housing based on the family unit, the study of family change research focus of changes in the demand for housing. According to predict the size of the population and family household number of changes to predict the number of households. Then, based on the difference in the proportion of household size and type in Shijiazhuang City, nearly twice census data, the proportion of linear extrapolation quantitatively predict 2008-2020 different family structures. At the same time, self-designed questionnaire, take a non-random, the purpose of sampling methods to select a certain number of urban households to conduct field surveys to gather and for families of different sizes and types of housing area and the type of information demand will. The pooled analysis of the results of the questionnaire, the basis for the meta-analysis of the results will be predictable as the demand for housing. Then, assuming the forecast period, demand for housing remains the case, based on family size and family I did the questionnaire data type on the housing needs of the area and the size of the case, combined with the changes in the family structure coupling analysis forecast 2008-2020 Shijiazhuang City, an annual increase of the area and the size of the total housing needs. Forecast, the following results: decreasing ① 2008-2020 Shijiazhuang City, the annual increase of the total housing needs of the area first and then slowly increasing. The demand of the different structure of the family housing area will change year by year. Cumulative demand for the area of ??one-person households, two-person households, and the trio families housing will gradually increase, including an annual increase of one-person households and two-person households will increase housing demand area trio families an annual increase of demand for housing The area is relatively stable; cumulative four and above households housing demand area continued to decline. Cumulative generation households, and three generations and more than households housing demand area are gradually increasing generation households annual new housing area will increase three generations and more than households in new housing area will be reduced year by year; housing of the second-generation households area will reduce aggregate demand. ② different units of new housing demand will continue to change. Annual increase of Ershiyiting housing demand will increase year by year, the two compartment of halls and Sanshierting the housing, an annual increase of demand is relatively stable, and will gradually reduce the cumulative demand of the Sanshiyiting, Sishierting and villas . Finally, evaluation and analysis of the process and results of this study pointed out that the advantages and disadvantages of the methods used and the data used. And from the consumer's point of view, combined with the results of this study, and made several suggestions for government departments and developers: to increase the proportion of the development of small and medium-sized housing; Do not blindly increase the total amount of housing development, but should be understood last year's housing supply and demand situation, the appropriate adjustments to the number of housing development; adjust the housing supply system based on the demand for housing, government departments should also take certain policy measures.

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