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Analysis of Changes in the Terms of Trade of China before and after Access to WTO

Author: ZhaoYingFang
Tutor: ZhangZuo
School: Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
Course: World economy
Keywords: Terms of trade Change Volatility WTO accession
CLC: F743
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 220
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Paper, 1995-2006 China's terms of trade index , first by the method of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis , analysis of the price terms of trade and income terms of trade trends before and after the country 's accession to the WTO as a whole and the classification of goods , followed by HP filter Price decomposition of changes in the terms of trade , and analyzed by standard deviation calculation of the volatility of the price volatility of the terms of trade , and Empirical Analysis of the factors affecting the price terms of trade in China , and by drawing on Baxter (2000) , and others made the trade conditions decomposition model decomposition analysis of the price volatility of the terms of trade and, finally, conclusions and make policy recommendations . The conclusions were as follows : before and after accession to the WTO , China 's overall merchandise terms of trade and the vast majority of types of commodity terms of trade decline in the overall commodity terms of trade in the decline was more pronounced after the accession to the WTO . Second , China's income terms of trade showed improvement trend , mainly brought about by the increase in the export volume of China 's accession to the WTO since . After accession to the WTO , China 's overall terms of trade volatility and the volatility of most of the classification of goods is greater than before the WTO accession , and the terms of trade in the post-WTO classification of goods decreased volatility after its accession to the WTO than before accession larger . China 's terms of trade and economic growth , foreign direct investment and export volume index there is a certain equilibrium relationship . Changes in the volatility of the price of the terms of trade in China is mainly affected by the impact of the country price effect , the same time SITC3 class that the volatility of the commodity terms of trade of mineral raw materials is a relatively large impact on China 's terms of trade volatility . On this basis , the paper proposes policy recommendations to improve the price of the terms of trade in China , mainly from improved export commodity structure , guide the inflow of foreign capital and avoid vicious price competition to start .

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