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The impact of fluctuations in the overall price level in China 's internal and external factors

Author: QianNeng
Tutor: ZhengHui
School: Fudan University
Course: World economy
Keywords: Price level Inflation Deflation Vector autoregression model Commodity prices Exchange rate Monetary policy
CLC: F726
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 371
Quote: 0
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Abstract


This paper mainly studied in the context of cyclical fluctuations in the world economy , China's overall price level in the last ten years, the cyclical changes in the internal and external factors ( inflation and deflation appear alternately ) . Since the reform and opening up , with the constant improvement of the market economy system , China's domestic economic cyclical fluctuations more and more the combined effect of internal and external factors , including the volatility of international commodity prices , exchange rate changes , the domestic supply and demand changes and monetary policy . Especially in recent years , the degree of opening up of the domestic market continuously improve our overall price level fluctuations and increasingly international market price fluctuations ; same time as the policy and institutional reform , domestic policies, especially monetary policy on the price level changes exhibit a certain degree of correlation . This article aims to Contact China's actual situation through the establishment of the theoretical model , an empirical test to verify what kinds of internal and external factors significantly affect China 's overall price volatility over the past decade , and the extent of the effects of each mechanism to a deep understanding of China in transition fluctuations in the economic operation of the substance in the process , but also hope to provide some useful policy recommendations for the government , the impact of non - normal fluctuations in macroeconomic policy , especially in how to ease the price level in the monetary policy -making process . In this paper, a method of combining theoretical research and empirical research , first construct a general theoretical model of price volatility , combined with China's actual testing of key variables , using the vector autoregression model econometric analysis , the final conclusion is : on behalf of the Currency the expansion expected consumer price index lagged variable is the most important factor in the impact of China 's overall price fluctuations , fluctuations in commodity prices on behalf of the international market only in the short term impact domestic prices , exchange rates and monetary policy in the long term impact on the overall domestic price volatility .

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > China's domestic trade and economic > Price
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