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Individual housing mortgage loan default risk empirical research and the loan before the control

Author: XuYaZuo
Tutor: HuiGuangPing
School: Nanjing University of Technology and Engineering
Course: Finance
Keywords: Personal housing mortgage loans Breach of contract Loan before the control
CLC: F832.4
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 180
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Personal housing mortgage loans is an important part of the housing finance domestic most of the studies on the risk of personal housing mortgage loans or qualitative analysis, quantitative empirical research based on the application of statistical models and tools is still relatively small . In this paper , the starting point is from the empirical analysis and normative analysis of the two -pronged approach to explore the important factors affect the risk of personal housing mortgage defaults , and finally gives the corresponding control on the default risk of the loan before the recommendations . 56,372 individual housing mortgage loans sample obtained from a commercial bank in Jiangsu Province by screening last available sample 34119 , 28432 normal loan sample , a sample of defaulted loans of 5687 . With reference to the results of previous studies of the basic selection of variables is divided into four general direction , and then selected according to the actual situation of the archive of previous experience and bank loans , occupation, education , the value of the loan balance than the Home Location Built in existing homes , house price index of 23 variables , the use of statistical software SPSS17.0 descriptive statistics , factor analysis , logistic regression analysis and discriminant analysis on individual housing mortgage default risk factors do empirical research . Empirical findings month lending rate , house price index , occupation, marital status , monthly repayment amount monthly income than the variable default have a more significant impact . Logistic regression and discriminant analysis model to predict the accuracy of the evaluation of two models for better prediction accuracy rate . Finally, I control according to the findings of the empirical analysis of China's commercial banks personal housing mortgage loan default risk loan before the proposed recommendations.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Credit
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