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Real Estate Prices Analysis Based on Demographic Bonus and RMB Exchange Rate

Author: ShiQingQing
Tutor: ShenSiZuo
School: Shanghai Jiaotong University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Demographic dividend Real estate prices Balanced RMB exchange rate
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 749
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Real estate is a special asset, which has the dual characteristics of consumer goods and investment goods. The long term, in accordance with the standard asset pricing model, real estate and other assets similar to the price depends on the Real Estate can provide the discounted present value, including: (1) the discounted present value of future rent; (2) Real Estate Disposal of the residual value of the discounted present value. And other capital goods, real estate investment is considered depending on the Tobin Q. The theory implies that investment is an increasing function of the the projects capitalized value of the unit of capital replacement cost ratio. And equity investments, real estate development and general use as the capitalized value of real estate prices. In accordance with such an interpretation, the root causes of cyclical fluctuations of real estate prices is the economic cycle, changes in interest rates and the risk premium. Traditional asset pricing model to explain the real estate price fluctuations is very weak, the real estate market there are some characteristics different from other markets. Recent real estate prices on the two hot topics: First, the debate \the demographic factors have a positive role in promoting the real estate prices, some scholars empirical studies found no relationship between the two, the research conclusions are not consistent, but on this study, the lack of theoretical support; RMB whether it will affect the exchange rate on real estate prices, the direction of the impact. One view is that the change in the exchange rate does not have much impact on the real estate market. Investment in real estate development project cycle is very long, and the liquidity of real estate is relatively low, often during the development of market volatility, there is a high risk. Thus, the increase in the exchange rate of investment in real estate projects will not produce great temptation. International capital investment, the key is to look at the risks of real estate development projects as well as the real estate market expected; Another view is that the real effective exchange rate appreciation of real estate prices has a positive role in promoting, because when the real effective exchange rate appreciation , foreign investors can get not only the real estate market investment income, income can also get the appreciation of the renminbi. Therefore, the real effective exchange rate appreciation would attract foreign investors in the property market investment, improve housing demand. Abroad less study the impact of exchange rate on real estate prices, and domestic scholars mainly qualitative analysis and empirical analysis, the study of this problem is lack of consistent findings. In the research context, the main contents of this paper is (1) According to the actual situation in China, through the establishment of a real estate equilibrium price model is theoretically proved completely rational market, the real estate yield and population growth, labor force dependency ratio, but with the urbanization rate is negatively correlated. Labor force from rural areas into the city can be a short-term increase in real estate prices, but it will eventually reduce the real estate investment yield. Sales prices of different types of housing and population-related data, the empirical results support the theoretical model. (2) through the establishment of the relational model of the exchange rate and foreign direct investment FDI, FDI into the real estate market can affect both supply and demand, but the impact of FDI on the demand for real estate is more pronounced due to the housing supply relatively rigid, and then explain the relationship between exchange rates and home prices and learn from Du Minjie, the Liu Xiahui (2007) model of the exchange rate is expected to impact on the price of real estate, had theorized that the relationship between exchange rate expectations and real estate prices, and the use of Chinese data empirical tests found that the real effective exchange rate and a variety of housing sales price was a long-term anti- equilibrium relationship, inconsistent with the theoretical model, this may be because of exchange rate appreciation is expected to highlight the exchange rate reform in 2005, but the inflow of foreign capital in this period to promote nominal housing prices, the overall price level also appeared rapidly rising, prices rose the actual gradual decline during this period. Empirical use of regional panel data, exchange rate changes and various types of housing sales positive correlation between the real rate of return. For the answer to both questions, demographic factors during this period was not significant, impact on prices and the exchange rate is a factor affecting the real estate yields, this demographic dividend, the impact of exchange rate on real estate prices have important theoretical and practical significance real estate \

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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