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A Study on Macroeconomic Factors of M & A

Author: WangLinYuan
Tutor: ChenYaoXian
School: Graduate School of the People's Bank of China
Course: Finance
Keywords: M&A Macroeconomic factor Market effect Interest rate effect Exchange rate effect Industry effect
CLC: F271;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 387
Quote: 0
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The world financial crisis hit the global real economy and many corporations went to bankruptcy. However, many other companies seized the opportunity to grow up through M&A. Why are there so many cases of M&A just after the financial crisis? Is there a certain relationship between macroeconomic factors and M&A? If so, what are these macroeconomic factors? What is the relationship?In my opinion, there are mainly five factors affecting M&A as follows: total market value, GDP, the proportion of Third industry in GDP, the interest rate and the real effective exchange rate. These indicators represent respectively the development of capital market, the development of the economy, the development of the industry structure, the cost of the capital and the level of exchange rate.The analysis framework is as follows:Firstly, we need a short review of the history of the world M&A. Then, we can begin to discuss the current situation and the problems of M&A in the Chinese capital market, analyze the effects of all the macroeconomic factors and provide some hypotheses. Finally, in order to test the hypotheses, we have to construct a model which is based on the capital market practice of China.Through the construction of the model, we can find that the main factors affecting M&A are the development of the capital market and the cost of the capital. The development of capital market contains two aspects. One is the total value of the capital market; the other is the structure of the capital market, which has been developed by the reform of the shareholder structure of listed companies. The market effect is positive and the market factor is also the granger course of the M&A. The second effect is the interest rate effect, which is negative.Then, the paper analyzes the exchange rate effect and the industry effect. Neither of the two is the main influencing factor now, but their importance will increase in future.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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