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Research on the effectiveness of real estate policy

Author: ZhangXiaoZuo
Tutor: HangXing
School: Fudan University
Course: National Economics
Keywords: Reputation Theory Policy Effectiveness Real estate
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 362
Quote: 0
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Abstract

Real estate industry as a pillar industry of the people's livelihood, the early days of reform since 1998 has attracted world's attention, and the government's macro-control is in the course of its development has played an important influence. Government, through land control, interest rate adjustments, taxes, income, credit conditions, and other means of protection of housing supply regulation aspects, but the regulation is not always satisfactory results. In view of the local government in the real estate interest demands, the central in the implementation of regulatory policies may deviate; if the lack of public trust in regulatory policy, whether it would be detrimental to the effects of policies, or even reverse direction role in fueling it? While public negative expectations, would further worsen the government's reputation, making the government's policy direction of the more volatile it? accordance reputation theory, the market economy, the credibility of macroeconomic policies affecting public expectations and the extent of the public policy response, turn right government decisions and policies have an important impact on the final implementation of the results. The reputation theory is applied in the specific industries, examine the impact of the government's reputation on the price elasticity and the constraints on the policy itself is innovation of this paper. This reputation through literature review on the theoretical study of context to sort out, build a reputation mechanism model to prove theoretically, to carry out measurement of empirical tests, with practical experience in research, concluded that: growth rate from the previous quarter, mainly land transaction price growth in the previous quarter growth of money supply, the current quarter growth rate of urban residents' income levels and the reputation of the government decision. Preferential mortgage loan rates to measure the impact of the government's reputation can quickly public expectations, thereby affecting the implementation of related policies results. However, the rates and preferential reverse and move instructions, pre-implementation of the policy effect constitutes a market reputation of the government's judgment, in the assumption of rational expectations, pre-suppression invalid result for the period to encourage inactive, while the current void in turn leads to encourage Next suppression invalid. In addition, the government's reputation impact on prices over time more and more significantly, the government will be a gradual deterioration of reputation slight deviation, the regulation more difficult. Therefore, the Government should focus on reputation building, emphasizing the policy stability and predictability, reduce implementation aspects of the conflict of interest, care for low-income people in public support, establish financial regulatory deterrence, change \long-term planning, and enhance policy transparency and data reliability, to encourage public participation and public opinion monitoring.

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