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Research in Financial Risk Prediction on Real Estate Industry of China Listed Companies

Author: QinYing
Tutor: YaoShuZhong
School: Liaoning University
Course: Accounting
Keywords: Real estate Cash flow Crisis warning Logistic
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 208
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The real estate industry is the coexistence of high-risk, high-return country for social stability and people live and work, often using tax, financial, fiscal and other policies to regulate the real estate industry. Property tax pilot the hot urban restriction order sharp increase in the real estate industry is facing financial pressure. At the same time the real estate industry to changes in the external environment uncertainties reaction greatly. They face the risk of more complex, the profit increase in the cost of increased risk, in order to reduce and eliminate financial crisis, the need to strengthen the awareness of risk prevention, emphasis on the role of the financial crisis in the system. The thesis is divided into six parts, the main content and framework is organized as follows: The first part, Introduction of the background and significance of the study, the research literature review of the domestic and international financial crisis early warning, and explain the content and methods of this research and the main innovation. The second part, based on the cash flows of the financial crisis early warning theory described the theoretical basis of the financial crisis early warning, the significance of cash flow management and its position in the financial crisis early warning. The third part describes the performance and characteristics of China's real estate listed companies financial risk, including the Chinese real estate market overview, specific performance of the real estate financial risk, the introduction of the general characteristics of the financial crisis of the real estate industry. The fourth part, based on the cash flows Enterprise Financial Distress. This part of the papers used principal component analysis principle and logistic regression model to analyze the specific introduction of the principle of. Fifth part, based on cash flow analysis of real estate listed companies Forecasting Model. Using principal component analysis combined statistical indicators screening and logistic logistic regression analysis model analysis. Part VI, the conclusions and limitations. The final analysis results show that, through four years of validation, logistic logistic regression model based on principal component analysis of enterprise financial crisis when the judge has maintained a relatively high accuracy. The paper's innovation lies in the sub-sample of the conduct of the industry research. Non-paired samples in sample collection, sample of financial crisis early warning that a relatively small amount of ST companies and a relatively large number of non-ST-enterprise, to avoid the chance and subjective defects of the way of the paired samples; followed by regression analysis The dividing point is corrected. 0.08 a conservative standard as the threshold of the judgment of the financial crisis, corporate.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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