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Research on the Forecasting Model of Energy-saving Potentials in Industry Enterprises

Author: WangXiaoJie
Tutor: WangXueXian
School: Dalian University of Technology
Course: Business management
Keywords: Industrial enterprises Energy saving potential Grey System Theory MGM (1, n) model
CLC: F425;F206
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 219
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China's \Energy conservation in China, thoroughly implement the scientific concept of development , one of the important speed up the construction of a conservation-oriented society . China 's industrial energy consumption, accounting for nearly 70 % , while the industrial enterprises also has a huge potential for energy saving . However , the existing industrial enterprises in the energy-saving potential of research and more emphasis on qualitative analysis , failed to quantify the energy-saving potential of industrial enterprises in the use of industrial enterprises in energy-saving policy tools , which give the government the inconvenience . Meanwhile, the industrial enterprises to carry out the scientific energy conservation management activities . Therefore, scientific projections of future energy-saving potential of industrial enterprises is an important basis to develop industrial enterprises in energy - saving policies and laws , but also guiding the industrial enterprise energy management important data to support . In this paper, this application needs , based on the theory of gray system , gray model is applied to the industrial enterprises in the energy-saving potential forecast , the main research work includes : ( 1) through literature review summarizes the methods and means of the existing energy efficiency potential forecast and the gray system theory is applied to predict the advantages of energy-saving potential . On this basis , the gray system theory analysis and discussion . ( 2) from the start of gray forecast and gray modeling , the proposed amendment on the basis of the model - multivariable gray forecasting model MGM (1, n) analysis . First , by modifying the model input time series industrial enterprises in energy-saving policy to consider the model of them ; Secondly , Grey Correlative Degree Analysis of the industry advanced unit of use can level also consider to model , solves with reference to corporate comparative analysis of the problem . (3 ) The use of the Canadian dollar leather production data from 1999 to 2006 , as a tool to Matlab7 application software , In this paper, the prediction model GM (1,1) model for each of the acquired data to simulate and compare analysis tests and analysis of multivariate prediction model proposed in this paper , the results verify the correction after multivariable gray forecasting model MGM (1, n) the reliability and superiority .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Management of National Economy > Energy Management
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