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RMB exchange rate changes on China 's import and export trade

Author: FengDan
Tutor: YangDingHua
School: Yunnan University of Finance
Course: International Trade
Keywords: RMB exchange rate Trading partner Import Export
CLC: F752.6;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 557
Quote: 0
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Abstract


After the exchange rate reform in July 2005 June 19, 2010, the People's Bank of China announced to further promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, this period slight appreciation of the RMB appears continuous, however, China's imports and exports has risen every year , but export growth has slowed. China's current trade policy and structure are substantial change, the the macro status quo of China's import and export trade how what impact, empirical RMB exchange rate movements will import and export trade, mainly in labor-intensive industries and how adjustment of development, what this article is to solve the problem. Analysis in theoretical and empirical, on the one hand on the theory of elasticity, IS-LM-BP model (which combines the China factor) detailed introduction. On the other hand the use of the real effective exchange rate, monetary and quasi-monetary amount of empirical analysis, the actual use of foreign investment, exports and imports and other economic variables. Qualitative analysis, combined with data from the United States and Europe, the Sino-Japanese bilateral exchange rate movements situation chart analysis of the import and export situation of China and the United States, China and Germany, and Japan. The end for the status quo and empirical problem, on the basis of the conclusions made recommendations accordingly. The cointegration analysis concluded that between the real effective exchange rate and export indices, the long-run equilibrium relationship between the real effective exchange rate and import index. Error correction model conclusions show that the devaluation of the RMB will lead to the rise of exports and imports, and the appreciation of the renminbi will reduce exports and imports. Exchange the indirect conduction of two steps regression description of the real effective exchange rate of RMB, the actual use of foreign investment, monetary and quasi-monetary joint significant impact on China's commodity price index, the parameter estimates are positive, the RMB appreciation will increase the domestic general price level, with China's actual use of the increase in the level of foreign investment and currency quasi-currency circulation, the general price level rose. In addition, the introduction of the real effective exchange rate lag a level of value, its argument is negative, the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation will be driven by general price increases, and then led the decline in the general price. Impact parameter of the commodity price index for imports is positive, the domestic general price increases will lead to increased demand for import substitutes, which led to the increase in imports. In short, although the appreciation of the RMB will bring about the rise of the relatively short-term cost, but is conducive to long-term macroeconomic enhance the quality of development. At this stage can use the integrated use of a variety of settlement currency to strengthen risk management and monitoring of reducing adverse impacts.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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