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Affect the price of residential real estate principal factor analysis and policy recommendations

Author: RongChenFang
Tutor: YangJunLong
School: Anhui University
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Residential real estate Panel Data Price Model Supply and demand Land
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 347
Quote: 2
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Abstract


The development of China's urban housing market less than 30 years, although history is not long, but it has increasingly become a hot topic, the topic is the focus of the primary residential real estate prices around. In many economically developed or more developed cities, the rise is beyond the capacity of many residents. This study based on the reality of China's national conditions, closely around the supply and demand for residential housing affect our analysis of the main factors. First, based on panel data model should be established Chinese residential real estate prices panel data regression model to analyze the impact of urban residential housing prices with the important factors of supply and demand relationship. Found that the income of the urban population, the cost of land and residential investment factors influence the price of residential real estate is particularly significant. Next, from the supply and demand factors for further analysis, due to effective demand is to support the residential real estate market, a solid foundation to build their own homes based on the potential consumer demand model will focus on analyzing the process of urbanization has brought urban housing needs and the original urban residents improve the housing needs of both large demand, demand forecasting model by building, roughly estimate the next five years China's urban residential housing demand; establish supply forecasting model, the same for the next five years, urban housing demand is estimated by measuring the discovery of supply and demand Contrast the situation is grim, the demand pressure. This contradiction is the long-standing basic national conditions, but also to consider all residential housing to solve the problem of the fundamental starting point and ending point. Finally, from the cost factor analysis of the most important residential housing costs - the supply of land angles, explore the relationship between the interests behind. Start with the empirical perspective on residential land prices for residential real estate with a unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, test showed that there is a causal relationship between the two. Based on the causal relationship between the supply of land for housing further institutional analysis, the perspective of trying mechanism for residential real estate prices. Finally, based on China's residential real estate supply and demand, regional differences and other practical situation, the main factors affecting the degree of influence, and the corresponding land and residential housing supply system problems, propose solutions ideas and policy recommendations. Should correctly handle the population, land, resources, environmental constraints and residents to improve the quality of living relationships, and strive to build a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, correctly handle the central government and local government relations, we need to maintain the unity of the central policy, authoritative, but also to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments and creativity, to prevent the real estate bubble and financial risks generated.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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