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With the rapid development of China's economic construction, the large number of high investment, new technology, large span Cross-sea Bridge Crossing the River have built up. Only in respect of the same (river) - three (sub) online on the proposed five sea project, Bohai Bay Cross-sea engineering, sea project of the Yangtze River estuary, Hangzhou Bay Bridge project, the Pearl River estuary Lingdingyang engineering and Qiongzhou Strait project. In addition, the Zhoushan Islands Link Project, Qingdao to Huangdao, as well as many of the Yangtze River, Pearl River, Yellow River bridge project. According to statistics, as of March 2005, only Yibin to Shanghai section of the river, the Yangtze, there has been extra large bridge opened to traffic in 41, 18 in the construction of the bridge (the bridge) is not included in the planning or design. So many bridges, brought huge economic profits to the state or local, but also affect the safety of shipping. The rapid development of the marine transport industry makes the navigable ship a huge change has occurred, the ship's size is increasing more and more, the number of ships, the bridge district environmental changes, such as flow rate, wind speed, waterways, erosion, siltation , tide, etc., will also affect the safety of the safety of the ship sailing in the bridge area waters. The ship is out of control dangerous situations has always been a major hidden water traffic safety, the ship out of control and lead to significant maritime accidents, occupies a large proportion of the total number of accidents (loss of control caused by traffic accidents accounted for according to the executive meeting of the International Navigation Association PIANC survey shows 21% of the total number of accidents), and the ship once the bridge waters than normal ship collision bridge lost control hit a bridge risks. Bridge District runaway ship track analysis has become increasingly concerned about the problems of the engineering community. First of all, out of control on the bridge area waters Vessel's Track analysis research background, research purpose and meaning discussed and summarized the research status and thesis research ideas and methods described instructions. Secondly, the use of systems engineering principles analysis of the many factors affecting the runaway ship trajectory, provides an analytical basis for the runaway ship track analysis model. Third, the paper support vector machine (SVM: Support Vector Machine) Development of relevant concepts and theories do introduced in turn leads to the SVM network, elaborated the mathematical description of the SVM algorithm is proposed based on the principle of the SVM network analysis applications analysis of the research procedures and feasibility analysis. Then discusses in detail the build the runaway ship track analysis model based on SVM bridge waters. Mainly include the following aspects: to explore the establishment of the key technologies of the regression analysis model based on SVM network, including sample selection and pre-processing, the selection of input and output variables, select training algorithm parameters, and finally establish a reasonable model of the network.
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