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Research on the Relationship between Investment in Real Estate Industry and Economic Growth in China

Author: YangZuo
Tutor: NanLing
School: Northwest University of Science and Technology
Course: Management of land resources
Keywords: Real Estate Investment Economic growth Cointegration test Error correction model
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 460
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Invest in promoting the growth of the national economy of a country plays an important role. Real estate investment as an important part of the investment in fixed assets, a larger role in promoting national economic growth of a country. How to effectively promote the sustained and healthy development of the socialist market economy under the conditions of the real estate industry in China, but also makes the real estate investment and economic growth, and to achieve positive interaction is very important and urgent issue. This article as a guide to real estate investment and economic growth theory, to select our 1999 to 2009 quarterly time series data on real estate investment and the growth of the national economy on the basis of the analysis of China's real estate investment and development of the national economy, both the interaction between the empirical analysis. Through the establishment of China's real estate development investment and GDP time series error correction model, cointegration test based on the following conclusions: (1) the existence of a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between China's real estate investment and economic growth. The long-run equilibrium equation derived by cointegration analysis shows that the real estate investment long-term impact on the national economy growth elasticity of 0.364. Each additional 1% of real estate investment, GDP increased by 0.364%. Seen, in the long run, China's real estate investment contribution to the growth of the national economy is very significant. Coordination when the growth rate of the real estate investment and economic growth rate, the national macroeconomic policies properly, real estate investment on the growth of the national economy a significant role in promoting and otherwise contrary, hinder. (2) two-way causal relationship between China's real estate investment and economic growth. Granger causality test results in a probability level of 92.05%, the real estate development and investment Granger cause GDP; probability level of 94.88%, GDP Granger cause of the real estate development and investment. An interaction between the two, mutually reinforcing relationship. The one hand, the real estate investment has a significant role to national economic growth; On the other hand, with the growth of the economy, the real estate investment has a big lead to. (3) analysis of the error correction model, the elasticity of short-term real estate investment on the growth of the national economy is 0.184, that is, short-term investments in real estate development for each additional 1% of GDP increase of 0.184%. As a result, we can see how the real estate development and investment on the long-term effects of the national economic growth is more significant than the short-term impact. Long-run equilibrium the readjustment (-0.229) is not very significant, mainly because of the late start of the real estate industry, many mechanisms are still inadequate and developed, to be further developed and perfected.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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