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Risk Management of Port Construction Projects on Monte Carlo Basis

Author: XuZuo
Tutor: LiuBin
School: Dalian Maritime University
Course: Business management
Keywords: Port project Risk Management Monte Carlo method crystal ball software
CLC: F550.66
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 330
Quote: 1
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Abstract


The increasing scale of modern port construction projects , increasing investment project within the increasingly complex relationship . On the one hand , the risks faced by the port construction projects increasingly large and difficult to control ; while on the other hand , high risk means high value and opportunity . Port construction project management , combined with the actual and reference to international practice , refused to take the initiative for risk evasive attitude , but also need to regain the initiative , the use of modern project management techniques , especially combined with computer technology , for effective risk management . The risk of variability and uncertainty , and how to identify the risks of uncertainty reasonably quantify the risk , is the focus of this study . Comprehensive port construction projects at home and abroad , the authors found that the domestic risk research because of cost considerations , the majority or only a single risk assessment methodology and the main subjective qualitative , quantitative analysis method is not widely used , or just use a single quantitative analysis method to measure risk . The innovation of this paper is that Crystal ball software investment risk analysis to identify the port , and the likelihood of quantitative analysis of risk and simplify a lot of tedious procedures , reduce costs , and also to make the results more intuitive . Hope can provide some new ideas for port projects in the field of risk management , and through practice so that constant correction and improvement . Text is divided into six chapters , the first chapter introduces the research background and significance of the research , and the domestic and international project risk management literature review and comparison ; Chapter II summarized the development of the project risk management and risk assessment methods, especially the development of the Monte Carlo method for elaborate ; Chapter III for a detailed analysis of the risk identification system from the port project risk definition, classification , assessment, quantification and other aspects of cognitive risk ; Chapter from a management perspective analysis of risk management ; Chapter empirical , with a specific example to illustrate the steps of the risk management ; final chapter is the concluding section summarizes the conclusions of empirical analysis also summarized in this paper .

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CLC: > Economic > Transportation and economic > Sea transport and economic > Waterway transport economic theory > Organization and management of sea transport > Financial management, economic accounting
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