Dissertation > Excellent graduate degree dissertation topics show

Developments and Improvements to Load Forecasting Subsystem of Computer Aided Decision-Making System for Urban Power Distribution Network Planning

Author: DuBaiJun
Tutor: WangChengShan
School: Tianjin University
Course: Proceedings of the
Keywords: Growthcurve urbanelectricloadsaturationcharacteristicanalysis monthlyload forecasting spatial load forecasting feeder load forecasting
CLC: TM715
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 107
Quote: 0
Read: Download Dissertation

Abstract


Load forecasting is the basis of urban power distribution network planning.Based on Load Forecasting Subsystem of Computer Aided Decision-Making Systemfor Urban Power Distribution Network Planning (CNP4.0) developed by TianjinUniversity, this paper makes a series of developments and improvements.First, a methodology of analysis and prediction on urban electric load saturationcharacteristic based on growth curve is proposed. With the approach of growth curvemodel to urban electric load, the saturation value, the saturated year, the fasted loadgrowth year and the load development level of the current year are achieved. Bycomparison of several growth curve models and parameter-solving methods, aconclusion is made that the four-parameter model is the most suitable growth curvemodel for electric saturation analysis.Second, an integrated prediction method based on Wavelet Analysis-GrayModel-Artificial Neural Network (WGG method) is proposed according to the changeregularity of monthly load. WGG separates the long-term trend component and periodcomponent by wavelet analysis to monthly load series. Gray Model and ArtificialNeural Network model are used respectively to forecast different components. Thismethod forecasts the monthly load development very well by comprehensiveconsideration of load long-term trend and period increasing trend.Third, a practical spatial load forecasting method based on main feeder isestablished by analyzing the current spatial load forecasting methods. This methodovercomes the disadvantages of current spatial load forecasting methods which arecomplicated and lowly automated. By dividing power supply areas into sub areas andusing main feeders as elementary units, this method forecasts the feeder load ofobjective year with analysis to regulation of normal trend and special events of load.Through low-to-up load superposition of substations and power supply areas, the finalforecasting procedure is completed. Besides, a discussion of improved feeder loadforecasting models and the features of them is carried out, with a preliminaryconclusion on the applicable situations of each model.Finally, a design of functions, user interfaces, data interfaces and databases of thealgorithms above is performed successively. These algorithms are integrated into Load Forecasting Subsystem of CNP4.0. The improved functions of that subsystemtake on very good performance in practical planning projects.

Related Dissertations

  1. Spatial Planning Urban Power Load Forecasting Method,TM715
  2. Study on the Methods of Spatial Forecasting for Distribution Network Based on Load Density Method,TM715
  3. Spatial Load Forecasting for Distribution Network Based on Ant Colony Algorithm and Cellular Automata,TM715
  4. Research of Uncertainty in Distribution Network Planning Based on Interval Analysis,TM715
  5. A Spatial Load Forecasting Method Based on Cloud Theory and Analytic Hierarchy Process,TM715
  6. Spatial Load Forecasting Based on Generalized Support Vector Machines and Cellular Automation Theory,TM715
  7. Research of the Power Load Forecasting and Optimization Based on GIS,TM715
  8. Study of Distribution Network Optimal Planning Based GIS,TM715
  9. The Research of Space Load Forcasting of Electrical City Distribution,TM714.1
  10. Applying Study of GIS to Distribution Network Planning,TM715
  11. The Study of Distribution Network Planning Based on GIS,TM715
  12. Research of Distribution Middle and Long-term Electrical Load Forecasting Based on Gray Model and Fuzzy Theory,TM715
  13. Research on Spatial Load Forecast of Distribution Network Based on Geographic Information System,TM715
  14. System of Spatial Load Forecasting of Urban Power Distribution System Based on GIS,TM715
  15. Study of 10kv Distribution Network Planning,TM715
  16. Distribution network and long-term load forecasting Research and Implementation,TM715
  17. Study on Modeling of Load Forecasting for Distribution Network Planning,TM715
  18. Study on Spatial Load Forecasting Based on Geographical Cellular Automata,TM715
  19. Research on Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Intelligent Computing,TM715
  20. Study on Data Management Methods of Distribution Network Geographic Information System and Its Application in Running and Planning,P208

CLC: > Industrial Technology > Electrotechnical > Transmission and distribution engineering, power network and power system > Theory and Analysis > Power system planning
© 2012 www.DissertationTopic.Net  Mobile