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The Research of Completion Probability of the Network Planning Based on Connection Number

Author: ZhangQiuYue
Tutor: DuZhiDa
School: Dalian University of Technology
Course: Civil Engineering Management
Keywords: Duration Influencing factors Contact number Network Planning Technology Completion Probability
CLC: F284
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 100
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Engineering construction projects, especially large construction projects tend to have a long construction period, a large investment, uncertain factors impact characteristics, many uncertainties makes the project progress control is difficult to carry out, easily lead to the actual progress of the project expected progress deviate from. Schedule delays have become a widespread problem in the world today the construction industry, especially for domestic construction projects, in terms of this issue. And progress control project investment, progress, quality is one of the three control objectives, and its success directly affects the other two goals. Out of control a significant delay when the progress of the project, the contractor is not only to increase the human and material resources to super pace, to pay to the duration of the delay liquidated damages, and construction can not be put into operation on schedule to benefit seriously affect the interests of many parties, so reasonable and effective control of the project progress is the most important in the construction and management of work. A large construction project duration study, combined with the actual engineering construction, consider a variety of uncertainties that affect the progress and the introduction of the contact number to represent this uncertainty, and then from the theoretical discussion and practical application of two obtained the probability of completion of the project and its critical path and critical process, in order to achieve the final attempt to control the critical path to control the key processes and then to control key factor in the gradual implementation of the purpose of the control project duration. First, the paper describes the status quo of domestic and foreign construction delays and the probability of project completion, and analyzes the influencing factors of the uncertainty of the duration of construction projects, Finally, this paper studies the content and innovation. Next on the status quo of network planning technology, analyzes the PERT network planning application process. Then use the contact number said that the uncertainty of the duration of the process in the uncertain influence factors, and quantitative analysis of the influencing factors according to their degree of importance, then use the contact number of the network planning techniques, combined with Monte Carlo simulation to build the completion of a project the probability of solving methods. Finally, according to the engineering examples, obtained the critical path of the project is a collection of key routes and routes into a process to find the key processes in order to identify the key factors on the key processes, of duration effective control.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Infrastructure the economy > Organization and management of infrastructure
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