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Study on Weight Analysis in Period Risk Assessment of Hydropower Project

Author: ChenXiaoYan
Tutor: DuZhiDa
School: Dalian University of Technology
Course: Project Management
Keywords: Large-scale water conservancy project fuzzy synthetic discrimination weight the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Period Risk
CLC: F407.91;F407.61
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 525
Quote: 5
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Abstract

Large-scale water conservancy and hydropower project is such open systems: large investment、long cycle, the internal structure is complex and the systems involve many complex factors. There are the many factors who have impacts on system , and all the factors have the complex relationship between each other.The risk which the project faces is very complex, so the manager should control risk in time and analysis the reason of the risk.Many scholars have carry out much research about the project risk analysis approach, and presentrd variety of risk analysis methods. But these methods have their own inherent defects, even fuzzy synthetic discrimination which have been recognized and wide used, have ite shortcomings.Large-scale water conservancy and hydropower project is an important infrastructure, but there is not a complete evaluation model about it, and give a orbicular risk analysis method.This thesis analysis the whole construction of the large hydropower station,and establish risk assessment models,and then use the improved fuzzy synthetic discrimination to determine the weight.The methods of weight we use before is directly based on the experience of experts, this method of determine weight is lack of scientific basis, and different experta have different conclusions.The thesis uses the further improved fuzzy AHP to determine weight, the result is more credible and more accuracy. This thesis combines FAHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation , then apply them to large-scale water conservancy construction risk evaluation.In this thesis, the research about the risk of large-scale water conservancy construction mainly includes the following areas:1. the thesis expounds ascendancy of using the fuzzy AHP to determine the weight, and establish the model of large-scale water-level assessment, make complicated risk assessment indicators well-organized and hierarchical.2. Based on the FAHP,the thesis brings forward a comprehensive risk assessment methods about large-scale water conservancy construction, and use program to calculate. FAHP adopts three-scale. So the experts can easily make judgement about two factors, which is more important than the other.In this thesis matrix transforms from the priority matrix to the fuzzy consistent matrix, the result meet the conditions of consistency, no longer need to carry out the consistency test. The method is simple and easier to master. In addition, it can also greatly reduce the number of iterations, improve the convergence rate, meet the requirements of accuracy.3. The example: the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of risk about a Hydropower Construction of China. In the thesis,the author establishs risk assessment model system. According to national norms ,the author determine the appropriate evaluation criteria for the assessment and confirm the state of risk classification, choose the trigonometric function as an indicator of the underlying membership function, use it to determine Membership functions of the underlying indicators . The membership function of the parameters underlying would assess the indicators to assess the value of fuzzy, based on the fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of ideas, complete risk assessment of the project.

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