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Research on the Fluctuation and Forecast of World Dry Bulk Carrier Orders

Author: KongXiangZuo
Tutor: ZhaoJinLou
School: Harbin Engineering University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Dry bulk carrier Orders Fluctuation Forecast
CLC: F552;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 145
Quote: 1
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Abstract


With the development of the shipbuilding industry , dry bulk carriers by virtue of large tonnage , small technical difficulty , good economic benefits and other advantages has become one of the world 's three main ship . In recent years, various shipbuilding country competing to increase dry bulk carriers , dry bulk carriers as one of the priorities of development , countries ship operators pay close attention to the development of the world dry bulk vessels . Dry bulk carrier of new orders is reflected in real time toward an important indicator of dry bulk carrier market , which best reflects the level of activity of the shipbuilding market , orders on hand can indirectly reflect the operational status of the shipbuilding enterprise , it is also a measure of the major shipbuilding enterprises key years of production to maintain steady growth . Thus , if you want to understand the situation of the development of the world's dry bulk vessels , fluctuations in new orders and orders on hand as the two major indicators of orders that must be mastered . The purpose of this study is to explore the characteristics of dry bulk carrier orders fluctuations in the world based on the large time span , and to identify the main factors affecting the volatility forecast for the next three years fluctuations . Therefore, this article begins with a brief introduction to the main ship of dry bulk carriers and orders constitute proposed six volatility parameters describe the characteristics of fluctuations in orders , and briefly discusses the general mechanism of the fluctuations ; Then, according to each ship orders the volatility curve , the fluctuations the parameters detailed description of the characteristics and distribution of fluctuations in the amount of orders over the years , and on this basis, to carry out an in - depth analysis of the causes of the abnormal fluctuations point or segment ; Finally, time series analysis method to establish predictive models , based on the study special orders taken into account , we join abnormal factor in the model , to avoid prediction deviation caused due to unforeseen exception of orders to improve the accuracy of the forecasts . In addition , according to the orders of the future trend of the development of our dry bulk vessels to make a few comments and suggestions , which provide theoretical guidance for China's shipbuilding enterprises operating decisions , and the development of related industries strategy also has certain reference value.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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