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Study on Dry Bulk Market of Panamax Carrier

Author: SongNa
Tutor: YangZhongZhen
School: Dalian Maritime University
Course: Transportation Planning and Management
Keywords: Panamax Coal Food Freight Index ARIMA model
CLC: F551
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 277
Quote: 9
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Abstract


Since October 2003 , the international dry bulk shipping market performance is very strong , as the core of China's imports of iron ore and Japan imported coal unprecedented demand , grain and minor bulks seaborne trade is also very active , rarely seen in history of pressure in Hong Kong and the the low growth SGX ship capacity of high tension supply . In a variety of dry bulk carriers , Panamax bulk carrier is one of the most representative of a class of ship . Its tonnage between 6 to 10 million tons by the Atlantic Ocean through the Panama Canal to reach the best ship in the Pacific , have been widely used in coal , ore , grain , fertilizer and other dry bulk and container and oil transportation . Bulk dry bulk cargo transport in the main and classic ship as an international shortage since 2003 , their situation began to climb after during several fluctuations , reflecting market trends BPI price index with 2007 10 May 30 , reached the highest historical points 11713 points . Whether such market conditions can last long , and how to respond to future market trends to determine the direction of development of the future period of time will become engaged in the Panamax ship operating companies are most concerned about the problem . Panamax carrier cargo demand , focused Panamax market analysis, the Panamax market trends for the next few years to study , to provide a reference for domestic companies Panamax ship business . Therefore, based on the technical features of the Panamax , Panamax carrier cargo : a major producer of coal and cereal consumption in its supply and demand situation , detailed analysis , and based on historical data , the use of combination forecasting method quantitative prediction of the world both the amount of cargo shipping ; Panamax ship transport structure analysis , a review of the characteristics of the development , also quantitative predictions of its future supply , in order to clear the supply situation in the next few years ; Finally , on the basis of analysis of the the BPI index of fluctuations regular ARIMA model analysis of the index future trend outlook .

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CLC: > Economic > Transportation and economic > Sea transport and economic > World waterway transport economics
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