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1914-1936 and 1953-1976 in China Comparative Study of Economic Fluctuations

Author: WuYan
Tutor: YangWanMing
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: History of Economic Thought
Keywords: Fluctuations in the economic cycle Chinese economy Counter-cyclical Economic fluctuations Business Cycle Theory Lack of effective demand theory Policy adjustment China Modern Short-term fluctuations Policy changes
CLC: F124.8
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2000
Downloads: 364
Quote: 1
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Abstract


It is the first task for the government to control the relationship among reform Stability and development in the period of economical system transfer , Stability and development is the target goal as file reform is. the method,It is necessary to utilize the fluctuation of business cycle to balance those three sides in business operation . In this paper ,the fluctuation of Chinese modern business cycle is the unavoidable phenomenology in the process of economy development which not only shows the unbalanced development of economy but also is the necessary process to the self djustment of economy to be mainly realized through the regulation of policy and reform of system . Therefore , We chose two periods(1914?936,1953?976 ) to analysis and father demonstrate: (1) It is the essential reason for the regularity of fluctuation of business cycle to set institution efficient ; (2) Effective polity regulation can restrain the range of this fluctuation and develop economy steadily and then complete the system assignment and the efficient transfer of economic policy through the fluctuation of business cycle to defend the stability of economic growth and develop economy steady. In the first part of this thesis , We analyze the definition, stages and fluctuation theory of economy period fluctuation. We hold that economy period fluctuation(EPF) is the alternative process of expansion and shrinking of the overall business which demonstrate the fluctuation of economy . EPF takes four forms: recovery~ prosperity~ recession and depression , prosperity and depression being the major stages . These two lead to a turning point , either of expansion or shrinking , whose condition and level directly shows the character and moving level of EPF. According to this basis , we focus on the western economy cycle analysis contains different expression to the source of EPF. We try to find out the source of China modern EPF through the results of western economy cycle analysis. In the second ,We chose two periods (1914?936, 1953?976 ) to analysis and father demonstrate . In the first , We find two miderm and seven shorterm fluctuations in China (1914 936), Concluding 4 times of 3 year length . It shows that there are regularities in EPF However ,the overall business development is low and has large shaking. We mainly analyze the causes of EPF in three factors to express the characters of Chinee EPF (19 14 936): (1) The continuing reform of modern Chinese company system is the determining factor of the regularity of EPF . We try to explain that three is plenty space and time fore the development of Chinese company system from the beginning of this century to 1930 by means of analyzing the development of modern Chinese enterprise organization and structure regulation and the construction of economy law. The efficient transfer of enterprise system can totally promote the regularity of EPF and offer a favorable system environment for the slow development of economy ; (2) The movement of money supply promotes modern Chinese economic shorterm fluctuation to take shape ; (3) The government eriodic and on periodic regulation or strengthen of the range of EPF. In 1914 1936,The Peking and Nanking government had used these two regulation to restrain the range . However, The fluctuation of range was still large and the development was not steady as a whole. Secondly, We find out that causes of EPF in 1953 976 are featured by : back of regularity sharp amplitud

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > Economic construction and development > Fluctuations in the economy
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