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Stable economic policy choices

Author: LiuZuo
Tutor: LiLaSheng
School: Tianjin College of Finance
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Stabilize the economy Fluctuations in the economic cycle Business Cycle Theory Knock-on effects China's economic Transmission mechanism The study of economics International economic cycle Interference and hazards Macroeconomic volatility
CLC: F120
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2000
Downloads: 94
Quote: 0
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Abstract

The economic cycle is the cycle fluctuations phenomenon in the course of the operation of the national economy. For a long time, it has been an important element in the study of economics. Western countries, the study of the economic cycle, has more than 100 years of history, and the formation of dozens of business cycle theory. China's economic cycle is only relatively in its infancy, but has made gratifying achievements. Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, with the changes in the world economy and domestic economic situation, China's economic cycle has also undergone a transformation. From the view things objectively historical development, with time and changes in the environment, the economic cycle theory also need to update and development, therefore, will continue to study the problem of the economic cycle economics research. This article studies the ultimate goal of China's economic cycle is to understand China's economic cycle, the characteristics and objective laws, seek economic policies in line with the economic cycle, to reduce the frequency and amplitude of the fluctuations in the economy, to avoid frequent, severe fluctuations on serious interference and harm caused by the development of the national economy, in order to achieve the purpose of the \This paper uses the principles and methods of macroeconomics, econometrics, and learn from the results of previous studies, through a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis approach and by means of a time series analysis software attempts to fluctuations in the economic cycle since the reform and opening up the intrinsic conduction mechanisms and policies to the knock-on effects to quantify and compare, through analysis the following conclusions: two decades of reform and opening up, China's economic cycle fluctuations occur gradually changes, on the one hand, cyclical fluctuations intrinsic conduction mechanism of the effect of enhanced decision of improvement in the level of economic stability: on the other hand, external shocks effect of weakening the effect of weakening the impact of irregular macro-control policies, and international economic cycles, technical impact of price shocks and other effects of external shocks has been enhanced. And on the basis of this conclusion, some suggestions on China's macro-control goals and policy options. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the empirical description of the Chinese economic cycle fluctuations, respectively, from the total amount of volatility, fluctuations in structure, fluctuations in demand, inflation rate fluctuations of the four aspects of the discussion, and made analysis of the relationship of total fluctuation and volatility of each component. The second chapter rely on shock and not dependent on the impact angle, several typical business cycle theory classification, and are briefly discussed. Actual situation in China in the third quarter, respectively, on a variety of business cycle theory are reviewed, pointed out that some of the theories and methods can be applied to the analysis of China's economic cycle theory. Chapter econometric analysis of macroeconomic volatility model, and the economic significance of the model made a reasonable explanation. The fourth chapter is the focus of this article chapter, the introduction of the economic cycle conduction mechanisms and the impact of the analytical framework of the mechanism, to explore the formation mechanism of fluctuations in the economic cycle, and to quantify the conduction effect and impact of inspection and assessment of the effect on China's economic cycle fluctuations the relative role. Chapter on the basis of the previous analysis, summarizes the macroeconomic situation in 1999, the outlook on the economic situation in 2000. China's fiscal, monetary, comparison of the effect of the investment policy, the future orientation of China's macro-economic policies put forward some suggestions.

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