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Study on Macro Economy Forecast, Public Finance Risk Evaluation and Public Finance Risk Control Decision

Author: JiangDaoPing
Tutor: ShiWeiRen
School: Chongqing University
Course: Systems Engineering
Keywords: macro economy forecast by NN public finance risk synthesize evaluate group decision support system
CLC: F810
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2004
Downloads: 588
Quote: 2
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Abstract

With the development of the market economy, the management of the macro economy and the control of the risk in public finance are faced more difficulty. The traditional method that is managing according to personal experience is not matched with the society demand. The macro economy and public finance need scientific management and decision methods.The macro economy system is made up of several economy factors, which are related with each other. The system is fluctuant, complicated, systemic and feedback. Qualitative analyze works together quantitative based on the complexity systemic methodology is the sound way to manage to the macro economy.Because of the essential attribution of the macro economy system, the forecast in macro economy is non-linearity and the past data is deformity. And the traditional method can’t fulfill the forecast. The NN is good at dealing with non-linearity calculation, simulate the appointed function and can learn by network, so the NN can fulfills the forecast perfectly. While the NN is not good at extrapolate in forecast, so a system modeling method that is combining NN with Least Squares is proposed to improve the precision.The public finance is faced with a lot of uncertain factors, which is public financial risk. The financial risk is integrated and not easy to be found. The public finance and the macro economy can work with each other. At one hand, because of the handedness of the financial risk, the financial risk only can reveal by the macro economy index, at the other hand, the finance decision can affect the macro economy index. So a synthesize method must be worked out to deal with all the macro economy index which effect the public finance, and evaluate the financial risk. Only the financial risk is realized clearly, can the finance decision be take with properly.In allusion to the complexity of the public finance risk, we propose a set of indexes to evaluate the degree of finance risk. This indexes is integrated and independent. That means the indexes are included all the economic factors effect on public finance and there is little relation among the indexes. We also propose a synthesize evaluate model which is made up of the 27 indexes to evaluate the degree of the finance risk and inspect every index to make sure it is in the right scope.Group decision support system is wildly used in economy and management fields. <WP=6>The evaluation, concentration on decision project and the related technology to fulfill the group decision support system are populous. We propose the method to fulfill the finance decision. Firstly, make out the mission and target of the decision according to the rebuilt of the finance risk synthesize evaluate. Secondly, analyze the situation of the economy environment. Thirdly, help the governor to make decision and concentrate all the plans to make decision. We propose the model to concentrate group members’ decisions into a unify decision.

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