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China 's listed companies' financial distress model

Author: RenXiaoJun
Tutor: FuLei
School: Capital University of Economics
Course: Accounting
Keywords: China 's listed companies' financial crisis Early warning model N value integration model
CLC: F832.51
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 604
Quote: 7
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Abstract


This paper argues that ended most of the current financial crisis early warning research the following problems : 1, does not distinguish between varying degrees of financial crisis ; the paired sampling exaggerated prediction model discriminant accuracy rate ; 3, the number of samples and the independent variables The number ratio is too low . Learn from the results of previous studies , the actual situation of China 's listed companies to redefine the financial crisis ROE benchmark interest rate lower than bank deposits , propose the following hypothesis - before the financial crisis , the crisis and non- crisis in financial performance , market performance , ownership structure and corporate internal governance structure , there are significant differences - and a series of propositions , based on China 's A-share non-financial listed companies annual report data and stock market data , the empirical research , the use of multiple discriminant analysis and logistic regression to establish the financial crisis early warning model under the two methods , and then design the N value of the integrated model , and test the model . Generally speaking, the basic empirical results support the hypothesis of this paper , the prediction accuracy of the early warning model is relatively high . The innovation of this paper is to : redefine the financial crisis benchmark deposit rate is lower than the same period bank ROE target of this study on the financial crisis , the possibility of financial distress in the short - term forecast non-crisis companies ; 2 , limited financial indicators and non - financial indicators , design agency variable , and the relative industry indicators included in the proposed early warning variables ; using multivariate discriminant analysis and logistic regression are two ways to establish an early warning model , and stepwise discriminant sequentially removed based on step-by-step into the model effective variable , a series of early warning models contain different variables , and finally to the arithmetic mean of the two types of errors minimum selection criteria to determine the optimal model ; 3, the design of an N- value integration model to a variety of financial crisis early warning model results .

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Financial market
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