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The financial crisis is an economic phenomenon refers to companies unable to pay debts as they fall due or expenses , including fund management technical failure to the bankruptcy, and recommended a variety of situations in between . With the continuous development of China's capital market , and constantly improve the information disclosure system of listed companies , listed companies gradually increase the implementation of special treatment , enterprise managers , creditors , investors and government administrative departments and other stakeholders timely prediction and evaluation the company's financial position, operating conditions are very significance . In this paper , on the basis of our current financial crisis early warning steamed research , further research to build the financial crisis early warning model . This article kept the principle of the sampling indicator variables selected in advance of the financial crisis early warning and financial distress prediction model, processes have been improved . In this paper, for the first time in 2002 , the Special Treatment 38 financial crisis and paired 38 non-financial crisis as the estimated sample , the use of multivariate analysis , the use of the audited financial statements of listed companies in the financial data , select the covers listed all aspects of the company's financial position 20 indicator variables to select the five indicator variables , using logistic regression analysis to build a more effective predictive ability of financial risk prediction . In this paper, the first time in 2003 Special Treatment 32 financial crisis and 32 non-financial crisis empirical test , the test results show that the likelihood of financial distress within the next three years to build the financial crisis early warning model can be a good early warning , the final test results of the total accuracy of 78.13% , the financial crisis in the next three years to determine the correct rate of 84.44% .
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