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International Financial Speculation, Irrational Decision and Sticky Expectation

Author: ChenZuoZuo
Tutor: NiYunHu
School: Zhejiang University
Course: International Economy and Trade
Keywords: International Financial Speculation Uncertainty Irrational Decision Sticky Expectation
CLC: F830
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2004
Downloads: 232
Quote: 0
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Abstract


There has always been a saying in Wall Street, "When Jay Gould was asked about the tendency of the stock market, his answer was never changed, ’the market is to fluctuate.’ Yes, it is to fluctuate and the fluctuation will be sustained. If the fluctuation of price is the timeless theme of the financial market, it goes without saying that speculations are the permanent course of fluctuation. Instead of seeking private gain by hook or by crook, here ’speculations’ refer in particular to seizing the right time or grasping an opportunity. In fact, the financial market has been in accompaniment of speculations all along.From speculation on tulip corm of Holand to Asian Financial Crisis broke out in 1997, the influence of speculations has become increasingly significant. Opening of the financial market provides speculations with more opportunities on the one hand and frequent speculations retard the pace of deregulating and enlivening the financial market on the other hand. Nowadays, an integrated global financial market is the prerequisite for the development of economy and financial open is the road to success for every developing country. The prevention of international financial speculations is a problem facing every country.What kind of market is the financial market? This has always been a controversial issue. In the economic field, there are two completely different views on this issue: 1.The financial market is rational and effective, and speculations are profitable to the market for their elimination of the unfavorable influence caused by participants’ irrational decisions as well as their prevention of the fluctuation of price. 2. The financial market is irrational and unprofitable because in this kind of market the participants’ irrational decisions could not cancel out one another and the equilibrium of prize is impossible. In short, the market is irrational, nonlinear, and in disequilibrium.When we talk about the effective market hypothesis we will naturally think of the famous hypothesis that people is rational, which is basic to many mainstream economics theories. But there lie in this hypothesis some limitations: It is impossible

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