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An Analysis of Factors Affecting Fertility Rate in Jiangsu Province

Author: DaiXiuMei
Tutor: YangYiMin
School: Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Fertility rate Structural equation modeling Lagged effect Population projections
CLC: C924.2
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 147
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Jiangsu as the eastern economy and most populous province, the aging of the population 13 years earlier than the national, entered the accelerated aging stage in a short span of 20 years, after four or five decades with the developed countries compared to the aging, Jiangsu not old before getting rich \Exploration of the underlying causes of aging of the population is of great significance to solve the social proposition. Existing studies suggest that the increase in life expectancy and the decline in fertility is the main trigger of an aging population, which explore the reasons for the decline of fertility is the key. On the basis of previous studies, elaborated the various factors that affect fertility, and build theoretical model fertility influencing factors, by selecting the appropriate statistical indicators to provide sufficient theoretical support for empirical research. Secondly, Jiangsu Province, population and fertility status quo descriptive statistical analysis, summarized women of childbearing age characteristics of Jiangsu Province, to provide a realistic basis for empirical research. On the theoretical and practical basis, by constructing a structural equation modeling using Amos software to fit the Jiangsu Province, 52 counties and county-level city statistics, analysis of the factors affecting the path and extent of fertility in Jiangsu Province. Finally, based on census information in Jiangsu Province in 2000 and two different fertility levels, Jiangsu Province, population size and population structure prediction comparison, the relevant policy recommendations, and pointed out shortcomings in the study and further studies are needed to problem. The main conclusions of the study are: (1) the size of the population of Jiangsu Province ranked first in the Yangtze River Delta, the future demographic trends were reduced type; increase in the proportion of new entrants to women of childbearing age, women of childbearing age, level of education generally low. (2) planning policies on fertility diminishes over time, the spatial distribution of the fertility level to raise and lower with the level of economic and social development. (3) economic and social factors has become a major factor affecting fertility, and the lag effect is greater than the current impact of the relationship between economic and social development level of fertility has passed the inflection point of the inverted \(4) Assuming stable economic and social development, in accordance with the current level of fertility, Jiangsu coefficient of the elderly population in 2016 will be more than the coefficient of children and adolescents, the elderly dependency ratio increased year by year, a severe test of the social pension system. Relevant policy recommendations for the conclusion of the study: the fertility policy locally raised; adjust the timing should avoid peak population growth period; moderate adjustment range, should be based on economic and social factors, the lagged effect of fertility estimated fertility rate forecast the degree of aging of the fertility levels, determined by aging treatment targets; accelerate the promotion and implementation of rural endowment insurance system, improve the urban social security system, the implementation of commercial insurance under government supervision, the introduction of private capital in the pension system.

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CLC: > Social Sciences > Demographic > Investigation and research of the world population > China's population
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