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Study on the Effects of Floating Population on Fertility Rate

Author: DingShuFen
Tutor: YangYiMin
School: Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Fertility rate one factor analysis of covariance Path analysis Lagged effect Floating population prediction
CLC: C924.2
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 118
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China’s fertility rate has stabilized at a low level, and population aging presents a significant trend, which will become a population growth of the "inverted triangle" mode, threatening social stability. The traditional theory of fertility transition focus on socio-economic and policy changes’impact on the fertility transition, but we found the decline of China’s fertility rate and the expansion of the size of current floating population occurred in time coupling.Based on previous studies, this paper firstly analyzes the status of China’s fertility and migration situation, which provides the basis for the establishment of theoretical models. Secondly, the paper establishes the theoretical model, which provides sufficient theoretical support for empirical research together with appropriate indexes selection, and then using the analysis of covariance to analyze the difference of fertility rate between resettlement areas and areas of departure. On the theoretical and realistic basis, the paper constructs path analysis model and introduces the conception of“delay”by Amos software, analyzes the influence path and degree of the factors affecting fertility rate, and fits the curve that reflects the relationship between floating population and fertility rate. Finally, the paper conducts Logistic Curve prediction of floating population size, and puts forward relevant suggestions at the same time.The main results concluded from the above research are: (1) From the time point of view, China’s fertility rate has a significant phase shift; China’s fertility level has obvious regional differences between provinces and regions. (2) Size of floating population in China showed a pattern of rapid growth. National educational status of the floating population is higher than the overall population’s. The intra-provincial migration behavior of the floating population is frequent in the coastal area of China. (3) The main reason for the difference of fertility rate between resettlement areas and areas of departure is the level of economic development. (4) Migration contributes to the declining of the fertility rate. Moreover, its lagged effect is greater than current effect. The influence of the economic-social factors is bigger than that of the migration factor. That means the socioeconomic factor is the main reason for the decrease of fertility rate. (5) China’s floating population size and fertility show hyperbola. And Current population growth has led to a decline in fertility. (6) China’s current total floating population will increase, but the flow rate of population growth will gradually slow down.Based on the conclusions, policy suggestions proposed are: Family planning policy should be partially adjusted in some low-fertility areas; put emphasis on the development of the floating population policy and institutional issues which effect the development of the floating population, and provides a fair external environment for the survival and development for the floating population; establish a sound institution to manage and provide service in densely populated areas.

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CLC: > Social Sciences > Demographic > Investigation and research of the world population > China's population
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