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Study on the Influence of Population Floating on the Fertility Rate in the End of 1990s

Author: TangGuiQing
Tutor: YangYiMin
School: Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Floating Population Fertility Rate Path Analysis
CLC: C924.2
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 36
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Abstract

As we know, our country successful completed fertility changes in the end of 20th century, and has entered a low birth rate of population after the transaction period. The results of many research show that the decline of fertility transition was attributed to the influence of the economic-social factors and the bearing-controlled factors, and the economic-social factors not only have direct influences but also influences on the fertility by affecting the bearing-controlled factors.At the same time, with the weakness of the dualistic structure and the development of the marketing economy, a lot of surpass rural labor has started to flow from rural to urban, there was a quick explode in the floating population. The floating of population, as a process of social change, not only includes the floating between the geographic units, but also a lot of change economic structure of society. Then the floating caused the change in social status, and the active of fertility at last. Moreover, the population floating accelerated the development of social economy, and accelerated the process that the social economy influenced the reproduction behaviors. The study showed the fertility level of the floating population was below that of the out-flowing area, and then diminished the fertility the fertility rate of those areas. In the article, we demonstrated the question based on the visual angle of the difference by space of our country fertility level, and there were some practical significance for the steady of the low fertility level and the reasonable of population floating.According to the fertility transition theory and the practice of fertility transition, this article select five population floating indexes and three bearing-controlled indexes, constructs the influence factor analysis frame. The first, because the survey data is based on the area of destination, so get the migration matrix on the outmigration from it on the immigration, and then by it as weights, get the characters of the floating people. The second, the correlation analysis eliminates the multi-collinearity among the floating factors and the bearing-controlled, so synthesizes the relative floating index and bearing-controlled index by data reduction and the index scores of each province. The third, according to the analysis model, this article uses the Multi Linear Regression Analysis, adopts the one-way recursive causality multi-factors synthetically path analysis to elicit the direct influence of the floating factors and the influence of the floating factors through the bearing-controlled factors. The results indicated that there is a significantly positive affect on the fertility, which is more than the bearing-controlled factor. Finally, figures out the influence of each concrete floating factor for fertility rate by SEM. The results indicated that the rate of floating is the most important factor in those population characteristics, and the level of income in the next place.Finally, summarizes some important conclusion and presents some suggestion.

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