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Investment risk management of highway projects

Author: ChangZhongZuo
Tutor: ChenZhiJun
School: Shandong University
Course: Business management
Keywords: Expressway Investment Risk management
CLC: F542
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 601
Quote: 9
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Abstract


Along with the further deep opening to the world and reform of investment and financing management system in our country, the investment, construction and operation of expressway project has been turned from central government investment to various investment modes like central government, local government, independent investors, cooperation with foreign investors and concession agreement operation etc. Because of the involvement of diversified investors and the incorporation of the concept and investment mode of BOT, concession agreement operation, a number of independent project companies for expressway management have been established by various investors. The various risks of such project companies in the monopolized expressway network has attracted the great attention of investors.With reference to the concept and theory studies achievements about Risk and Risk management in both home and abroad and based on the background of building a whole well-off society of China and speeding up the construction of the infrastructures, from the investor’s point of view this article discussed the risk analysis and risk management on expressway project investment under the current investment management structure in China. This article also proposed the method of risk identification, risk evaluation and risk analysis and the measures to be taken to keep away and control the identified risks.Considering the characteristics and general rules of expressway project investment, this article analyzed the risk sources, risk characteristics and main risk types in different phases of project. And using the quantitative analysis method the article carried out the investment risk analysis and sensitivities evaluation. On the basis of the analysis and evaluation, the article proposed the making of investment decisions and constructive measures for risk keep away, process, monitoring and control during the project implementation. Such study achievement will be of great importance and effective guidance to the decision makers and management people who are involved in the expressway investment, construction and operation.This article includes six chapters.Firstly, the article introduced the development status and the planning target of the national expressway network, and then indicated the necessity and importance of project risk management.In second, according to the study achievements of risk and risk management, the article defined the definition of risks and risk management. Then the article define therisk management as four steps such as risk identification, risk evaluation, risk keep away and risk monitoring.In Chapter 3, the article mainly discussed the project risk identification methods such as Questionnaires or Checklists, Flow Charts, Financial Statement etc which are popular used in expressway project. Then the article introduced the investment modes and construction procedures of expressway investment in China. The project has been phased in 3 parts i.e. feasibility studies phase, construction phase and operation phase. The article analyzed the expressway investment characteristics and the risk sources, risk characteristics and risk rules, analyzed in detail the risks in different project phases and in different types including political risks, construction risks, financing risks, technical risks, operation risks and market risks etc. Finally the article introduced the application through a case project analysis,In Chapter 4, the article mainly introduced the risk quantitative analysis methods including break even analysis method and sensitivity analysis method. Then the article introduced the quantitative analysis data factors and analysis procedure in expressway investment, indicated that the total investment, policy changes and the transportation forecast are the main influence factors. Using the discussed methods the article analyzed the risks of the case project case in Guangdong and proposed the suggestions to decision makers and investors. Through sensitive analysis using the IRR as index, the article indicated that total investment and total income are the most sensitive factors.Finally the article mainly described the methods to keep away of project risks including risks sliding over, risks transfer, risks keeping and risks control. Then the article proposed dedicated measures to be taken for the main risks in expressway project. The article also suggested management solutions for the case project risks.The article discussed the concept and implementation process of project risk monitoring. Investors shall check periodically the effectiveness of risk management measures and identify new risks.

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CLC: > Economic > Transportation and economic > Land,road transport economy > Chinese land,road transport, economic
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