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Starting from the basic concepts of probability of default , methods of measurement of the probability of default of bank loans as the object of study , a comprehensive analysis of the requirements and the significance of the measurement of the probability of default of bank loans in the new Basel framework in accordance with the theory of stages of development , a synthesis of existing The probability of default measurement theory and methods , including the Z-score model , logit model , EDF model and artificial neural network model, etc. . Empirical analysis discusses these measurement model based on , select the actual loans of the commercial banks in China on corporate financial statements and loan data , multi-angle analysis of loans to businesses of non-compliance , and the use of data to test the validity of some models , constructed new regression model of the probability of default , and compare their advantages and disadvantages , and finally arrive at the present stage of China 's commercial banks to the methods and models applicable to measure the probability of default of loans to businesses , measuring corporate default probability of the bank's internal autonomy , the implementation of the IRB to provide a theoretical basis and practical support .
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