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An Empirical Study of the RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate

Author: WuChunLei
Tutor: CaoTingGui
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: Renminbi The equilibrium real exchange rate Exchange rate misalignment Behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2006
Downloads: 260
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In recent years, in the context of the Chinese economy has maintained rapid growth, the current account surplus continues to expand, double surplus of current and capital projects, the foreign exchange reserves continue to surge, the international demands for the voice of the appreciation of the renminbi continued domestic academia and policy authorities should No discussion of the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate and the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime also tends to intensify. July 21, 2005, announced: \RMB exchange rate mechanism, and the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar by 2.1% since the announcement when the U.S. dollar against the RMB transaction price is adjusted to one U.S. dollar to 8.11 yuan. Reform have passed a few months, the discussion seems to be about whether the RMB should appreciate with the implementation of the reform and the dust settles, but the fact is: the reform did not make the debate about whether the RMB should appreciate cool have fueled academic sector, business community and even ordinary people all the conjecture further appreciation of the renminbi. For a time, about whether the RMB further appreciation when appreciation appreciation of how much the issue has become the focus of discussion by the people, the business community, academia and policy authorities. To answer these questions, we need to know the equilibrium exchange rate of the renminbi, as to determine whether the RMB exchange rate imbalance, standard offset to what extent. This article is an article on the exchange rate of RMB Equilibrium, its purpose an empirical model to establish the equilibrium exchange rate of the RMB RMB equilibrium exchange rate of the 1980-2004 long-term disorders, and on this basis to calculate and reason analysis to answer the RMB exchange rate is offset, undervalued or overvalued, the problem of how the degree of disorder. The logical framework of this article: Western classical exchange rate determination theory Adaptability in China → modern equilibrium exchange rate determines the theoretical model introduced → modern balanced exchange rate theory to establish long-term equilibrium exchange rate of RMB equilibrium exchange rate model → RMB estimated → long-term equilibrium exchange rate of RMB disorders estimates and cause analysis. Under the guidance of this logic, the paper is divided into four chapters, its main contents are as follows: the first chapter, introduction of the Evolution of the RMB exchange rate system, from the general to RMB

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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