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Chinese Money Demand empirical research
Author: WangHongFeng
Tutor: LanFaQin
School: East China Normal University
Course: World economy
Keywords: Demand for money Empirical Cointegration
CLC: F822
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2006
Downloads: 392
Quote: 3
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Abstract
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Effectiveness of monetary policy can play a key premise : Monetary aggregates and monetary policy objectives such as inflation , nominal income growth, and so there is a stable relationship , which requires a stable money demand function . Since 1994, China's monetary policy operations mainly from the direct control of the size of credit control means gradually to control the monetary base , interest rate adjustments , open market operations and other indirect control means changes in 1995 try to put the money supply into the intermediate target of monetary policy system, 1996 officially put the money supply as an intermediate target . Therefore, analysis of the demand for money and the establishment of China 's money demand function for the central bank's monetary policy formulation and implementation is of great significance , and this is where the significance of the topic of this article . This paper is divided into five chapters: Chapter Introduction , introduces the research background , objects, and methods ; Chapter development of the theory of money demand were reviewed ; Chapter empirical money demand at home and abroad were reviewed , elaborated advantages and disadvantages of various models and the latest research results ; fourth chapter of our money demand model variables selected were analyzed ; fifth chapter is the empirical part , on the specific form of money demand function was tested , and the results were analyzed summary , this also gives some policy recommendations. The main conclusions are: 1. At present, China decided to M1 and M2 , respectively, and their long-term stability between variables cointegration relationship, so just from the intermediate target of monetary policy associated with the ultimate goal of this perspective , China's central bank chooses the money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy is feasible. 2 . M1, M2 on changes in real interest rates and expected inflation are significantly sensitive and semi-elasticity of inflation is greater than the interest rate semi-elasticity . Therefore, in formulating monetary aggregate target should give more consideration to the inflation factor. 3 . M2 short-term money demand function is stable , M1 is unstable. Therefore, our current should mainly M2 intermediate target of monetary policy , while the M1 is only as an important reference .
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