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Research on Several Problems of Power Futures Market

Author: GaoXiang
Tutor: MaoChengXiong；LuJiMing
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course: Proceedings of the
Keywords: Power Market Power Futures Electrovalence Grey Model Theory
CLC: F407.61
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 239
Quote: 2
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Abstract


With the development of market economy and capital market, the reform of power market will be more deeply and the electric power futures market will be established in the future. The electric power futures market is a sort of very important money market in the power market. Researching the characteristic and rule of electric power futures market has important significance for market actor of avoiding the fluctuating power prices or speculating on a rise. The conception and effect of the electric power futures market is advanced in this paper at first. The different of time-bargain between spot transactions and long-dated agreement bargaining is compared, then the basic theory frame of the electric power futures market has been established. The effect of avoiding the risk of electric power futures market is researched in this paper on emphases, pointed out that the market actors could transferred the market risk to the speculator through hedging. At the same time, by the function of price finding and market stabilization, the whole risk of the power market has been reduced. Another emphasis of this paper is how to forecasts the power forward price. With the introduction of several method of prices forecasting, by taking into the grey model theory, GM(1,1)model, Verhulst model and DGM(2,1)model are established respectively to forecasting the forward price. Then the model that which has the most precision will be selected by the error evaluation with the forecasting prices of every model, taking into the idea of subsection, best grey model is established to forecast the change of the parameter a . A best gery model with grey parameter is established to forecast the power forward prices finally, and a good result is obtained in improving the forecasting precision. Finally, the price competition model between the market actors is proposed, and the power volume distribution model within the time-bargain and spot transactions is also proposed when the power futures market has been established in the future.

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