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A Research on the Demand of China’s Steel Market

Author: LiuWangHui
Tutor: XuChangSheng
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course: Western Economics
Keywords: Apparent consumption of steel Intensity of steel consumption Investment in fixed assets
CLC: F426.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 421
Quote: 3
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Abstract


The steel industry is an important basic industries in the national economy . Only affects the scale of the judgment of the future development of the iron and steel industry to the investment and development of the steel industry , but also affect many upstream and downstream industries as well as the overall national economy . Therefore, under the conditions of market economy , we must attach importance to the study of the law of demand on the steel market . This paper analyzes the factors affecting the demand for steel in China , that the GDP growth , the optimization of the industrial structure , the development of science and technology and other factors are the main factors to affect China's steel market demand ; steel demand in China reached saturation four basic conditions : Basic achieve modernization , and the per capita gross domestic product ( GDP ) reached a high level , industrial structure, a fundamental change in the proportion of primary industry dropped significantly this article using the latest quantitative analysis methods , such as the theory of cointegration vector autocorrelation (VAR) model of China's steel the volume and structure of the market demand forecast. Quantitative Analysis of the results showed that the GDP and steel consumption intensity data for more accurate short-term forecast of the total demand of China 's steel market , China 's apparent steel consumption in 2005 is expected to reach 3.4 million tons ; investment in fixed assets and steel table long - term cointegration relationship between the concept of consumption , can be used to predict the long-term needs of the investment in fixed assets of China's steel market , China 's apparent steel consumption in 2010 is expected to reach 4.4 million tons ; automobiles, machinery , real estate , household appliances , the four industry a greater role in boosting demand for steel market , high value-added products for these four industries will account for about 80% of the total market demand for steel . According to the research results , the next two to three decades , the total demand of China 's steel market there is still some room for growth , demand for high value-added products will account for the majority of the total demand for steel . Thus , the iron and steel enterprises should speed up technological innovation, optimize product structure, in order to adapt to changes in the steel market demand .

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