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Analysis on the Balance of Coal Supply and Demand and the Research on Countermeasures

Author: LinZuo
Tutor: YangZan；FengRuMei
School: Dalian Maritime University
Course: Transportation Planning and Management
Keywords: Transport Coal market Supply and demand balance System Dynamics
CLC: F426.21
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2006
Downloads: 637
Quote: 16
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Abstract


Coal is China 's main energy , the development of the coal industry to support the rapid growth of the national economy . Years of raw coal production and consumption data show that China's coal market in most cases have shown the total supply is greater than demand situation , but localized coal supply have also occurred . Therefore, analysis of the impact of the coal market supply and demand balance factors and to identify the relevant countermeasures is particularly important , the purpose of this research lies in this . In this paper, based on market supply and demand theory , take a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis of a variety of methods , and to discuss coal market supply and demand balance for the actual situation of our country . This paper describes the characteristics of the coal market supply and demand , related factors , as well as the characteristics of the coal supply and demand . Of system dynamics theory , based on the study of the Chinese coal market supply and demand analysis of the reasonableness of the application of the method to solve the coal market supply and demand balance . System dynamics theory to establish a system dynamics model of the coal market supply and demand balance , combined with historical data , and analog . Can be seen through the analysis of simulation results , in accordance with the current development trend , the effective supply of coal and coal transportation can be exactly become the bottleneck of the coal supply coal transportation , coal production enterprises have to be shipped production quotas , part of the coal could not be transported produced in the area and can not form effective supply . Solve this problem , we determine the the Coal Transportation coefficient and transportation investment ratio as a policy variable , its adjusted further analysis . The simulation results show that the two adjustment measures can be greatly improved coal transport capacity the coal gap along also declined . Finally, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the simulation results after the model simulation results and adjust the policy variables , respectively, from the supply, demand , and transportation of a series of countermeasures .

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