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Beijing Computable Nonlinear Dynamic Input-Output Analysis

Author: XieYuanTao
Tutor: LiaoMingQiu
School: Capital University of Economics
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: CGE Avenue Models Von Neumann -ray Dynamic input-output model
CLC: F223
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2006
Downloads: 498
Quote: 1
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Abstract


This article is mainly focus on economic growth and balanced from the production module, price module, the supply and demand balance build Computable Nonlinear Dynamic Input-Output Model and give empirical analysis. This paper is divided into theoretical models and empirical analysis of two parts: The first part is the theoretical model, single-sector model and multisectoral model two, and multi-sector model also includes the optimal model for balanced growth model and avenues. Single-sector model continuous-time and discrete-time analysis of the optimal economic growth path, this part of the study is a balanced growth path problem, suitable for dynamic optimization model to solve differential equations to analyze power system path, the purpose is to analyze how the use of iteration Method factor prices and product prices and a reasonable rate of growth; multisectoral model analyzes the optimal balanced growth path of the economy is and how to quickly adjust to this balanced growth path, the study of dynamic general equilibrium growth path and adjust the orbit , the former with dynamic inversion to solve the latter using dynamic programming. Specifically with the results of the previous single-sector model (including wage rates and rental rates), substituting into multisectoral optimal balanced growth path of the economy formula to calculate the optimal balanced growth path multisectoral; reality is the most economical orbit excellent economic orbit there is a difference, which relates to how to develop plans that will orbit the short term, as soon as the economy adjusted to the optimal balanced growth path problem, which is the road model content. Calculate the optimal paper recycling solution into Avenue balanced growth model to calculate how the five-year plan effectively balanced growth path to achieve this goal. The second part is the empirical analysis, we calculated both theoretically optimal balanced growth path and adjust the track, but also to calculate the price system in accordance with the existing calculations of the actual optimal balanced growth path and adjust the track and comparative analysis, structural analysis, talk about the conclusions and policy implications. This paper attempts to calculate the premise of nonlinear dynamic input-output model, and computable general equilibrium model with nonlinear dynamic Leontief input-output model, and multiple nested nonlinear dynamic input-output model to unify, and finally solve Beijing City of optimal economic growth path, and five-year plan, for example, research avenue model. This article concludes with a brief commentary, and do further research directions outlined. This article will trace compared with the forecast, the ideal and the actual comparison of theory and empirical evidence interoperability, and strive to clear, reasonable and logical structure.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Input-output analysis
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