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Analyzed the Efficiency of Housing Market of Changsha City

Author: ZhangYin
Tutor: YangShengGang
School: Hunan University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Residential real estate market Validation VAR model VEC model
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 99
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The real estate market is one of the important components of social wealth, the real estate market and other market-related degrees linkage coefficient, in the pilot, the basic position, changes in real estate prices has a dynamic impact on macroeconomic and local economy. Learn whether the real estate market, whether it is to predict macroeconomic trends or substantial purchase behavior is of great significance. Over yield time series in order to test the effectiveness of the residential real estate market in Changsha, first come through the residential real estate market in Changsha monthly data calculated from January 2006 to March 2009, and the statistical analysis of the market risk income, Changsha residential real estate market validation. The results show that the the excess yield time series of historical value and future expected revenue to a certain extent a positive correlation, actual future gains some explanation of variance ratio test Changsha residential real estate market does not have weak validity; rental price ratio test draw historical rent and price information to predict future earnings, so Changsha residential real estate market also declined to a semi-strong efficient market hypothesis. The impact of monetary policy on housing prices in the residential real estate market is a dynamic process, but for the buyers in terms of macroeconomic data on the impact of the residential real estate market in the end how much, usually have to wait until the market showed more obvious trend before reflected, often in the state of asymmetric information, buyers in the market in the search for a longer time, and higher transaction costs. This article the previous part of the residential real estate market validation results based on the VAR model, based on the balance of long-term loans, Changsha financial institutions, financial institutions, short-term loan balance, the balance of deposits in financial institutions, personal disposable income and prices of these five variables and VEC model, analysis of the four variables and prices of long-term and short-term Granger causality, the use of the impulse response function and variance decomposition method to study the changes in the total outstanding loans of the financial institutions in Changsha and loans from financial institutions short-term balance impact Changsha City the dynamic effects of the residential real estate prices. The analysis results show that the balance of short-term loans on real estate prices in the period of time sustained positive impact of the increase in the balance of short-term loans will lead to rising real estate prices; changes in the total loan balance is positively related to the impact of real estate prices, but in the long-term dynamic effects becoming more and more stable.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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