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The Effects of Pension System on Residents’ Consumption in China

Author: GuXue
Tutor: LiChangRong
School: Nanchang University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Endowment Insurance Resident Consumption Feedback Dynamic Mode
CLC: F126;F842.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 231
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The economic is growing rapidly for nearly 20 years in China, but it is an undoubted fact that residents’consumption tendency is declining and the saving rate is continuously increasing. Residents’consumption is constrained by many uncertain factors, such as the pension system, health and education costs. This paper would investigate the effects of pension system on residents’consumption in a macroeconomic sense.On the basis of Consumption Theory and OLG, this paper combines system thinking, theory analyses and empirical research, and designs a system dynamic model to study the effects of pension system on residents’consumption. In the model, population is divided in different age types to correspond to the basis of OLQ and the birth rate is supposed as a endogenous variable to enhance the relationship between endowment insurance, resident consumption and age structure.After initialization, system simulation obtains reasonable results. At first, the pension payment gap would be negative at 2015, which would keep nearly 100 years; second, the overall average consumption rate would drop from 0.4 to 0.32 until the number of retirement people reduce to the minimum. On the basis of sensitivity detection and analysis of pension system and residents’consumption, this paper reach the conclusion as follow:the ageing of the population have adverse effects on the birth rate under current pension insurance system, and the duration of pension payments gap would be longer than the process of the population ageing; low insurance coverage would have a greater restriction on residents’consumption, in order to enhance the consumption level, the government should not only increase the pension insurance coverage but also supply financial subsidies to remove the "invisible debts" of the pension system reform; Compared with increasing the coverage of endowment insurance, rising retirement age is more effective to deal with the consumption constraint and the gap of pension.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Insurance > China's insurance industry > Various types of insurance
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