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The Relationship between Financial Development and Foreign Trade in China

Author: FengYeYue
Tutor: WangHaoZuo
School: Ningbo University
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: financial development foreign trade relationship empirical study
CLC: F832;F752
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 91
Quote: 0
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Abstract


With the process of economic globalization, finance and trade are interpenetrating and interacting mutually, and becoming the core force of modern economic growth gradually. According to the development of economy and society in China, finance has been playing an important and irreplaceable role in the process of rapid growth of foreign trade. After China’s entry into the WTO, foreign trade faces increasingly keen competition. Higher demand is raised to the financial industry, which will lead to a profound change in the financial system. It’s very significant to make a study of the relationship between financial development and foreign trade which may shed light on the policy making of coordinated development of finance and trade.Firstly, this paper suggests financial development and foreign trade are connected with each other. Secondly,this paper gives a series of indicators that can describe the true level of financial development and foreign trade in China, and then makes an analysis of the general situation according to the indicators. Thirdly, an empirical study is taken to analyze their relationship. This part is the core of this paper, and the research is taken as bellow. One is a co-integration test of financial development and foreign trade indicators based on national time series, considering whether there exist structural changes. The other is an analysis of the effect of foreign trade on financial development based on the model constructed by Do and Levchenko, using crossed provinces panel data. In the last, some policy recommendations are put forward.Here are the main conclusions of empirical study. By taking co-integration analysis and granger-causality test, we find a long-run equilibrium between financial development and foreign trade. The enlargement of financial industry can actually promote the development of foreign trade,meanwhile there is no evidence supporting foreign trade can promote financial development vice versa. Using the method of co-integration with structural changes, structural breaks are found in some series, but the long-run equilibrium is still remarkable. Besides, this paper analyzes the effect of foreign trade on financial development according to Do and Levchenko’s model. The result suggests foreign trade can promote financial development in the scale. In particular, the effect of foreign trade on financial development is more remarkable in eastern China. This is, in some degree, agreeing with the anticipation of Do and Levchenko’s model.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade
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