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The Empirical Research on How the Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility Affects the Import and Export Trade of China

Author: DengLei
Tutor: DengShuiLan
School: Nanchang University
Course: World Economy
Keywords: Exchange rate fluctuations Trade structure Trade Balance Cointegration
CLC: F832.6;F752.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 194
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Trade balance is among China's national economic accounting system an important part, to reflect the level of China's economic strength and our economic position in the world and reflects the country's economic growth and development speed. The RMB exchange rate changes not only affect China's trade balance, but also affect China's foreign trade import and export commodity structure, so the RMB exchange rate is often used as an important means of regulating import and export trade. Based on these two perspectives to study the real effective exchange rate on China's import and export trade. The main idea is to study the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the text is divided into the following parts: The first part of this paper mainly presents the background and significance of relevant literature review; reviews the impact of exchange rate movements on export trade mainstream theory, and based on microscopic foundation set up static and dynamic theoretical model. The second part introduces the concept and the relevant exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate reform process, combined with the dollar's effective exchange rate analysis of China's real effective exchange rate movements in the level of reason, and to study the area of ​​China's foreign trade structure and commodity structure, found China's trade the market gradually diversified, decentralized and trading of commodity structure optimization. The third part of this paper, 1994 - 2010 years degree of sample data to establish the conditional variance GARCH model derived rate as a measure of exchange rate fluctuations. Then test the level of the exchange rate changes and exchange rate uncertainty and trade structure of these three variables Granger causes. Finally, based on VAR model uses 1994 - 2010 annual data, respectively, changes in the level of the exchange rate fluctuations and the impact of uncertainty on China's imports of goods and export commodities structure. Studies have shown that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, although the short term deterioration in China's foreign trade structure, but the long term to optimize the structure of import and export trade; exchange rate uncertainty increases, will worsen the structure of export commodities, but to optimize the structure of imported goods. The fourth part, the establishment of co-integration model to analyze the amount of the trade balance, exchange rates and long-term equilibrium relationship between income and further investigated using the error correction model of short-term dynamic relationship between them. The results show that in the long-run equilibrium relationship, the exchange rate appreciation can increase the trade balance, exchange rate fluctuations increased to increase the trade balance; dynamic relationship in the short term, the exchange rate appreciation rate increases can promote trade balance increased growth rate, exchange rate fluctuations increased growth increase in the growth rate for the trade balance had no significant effect. The fifth part, the conclusions for the empirical analysis, the paper put forward the corresponding policies and recommendations.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade > Import and Export Trade Overview
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