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Rmb Exchange Rate, Foreign Trade and Employment Growth

Author: ChenXiuZhi
Tutor: DingChengCheng
School: Zhejiang University of Finance
Course: Finance
Keywords: Exchange rate reform RMB exchange rate Foreign Trade Employment growth Chow-test
CLC: F752;F249.2
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 513
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, the continued appreciation of the yuan, the cumulative appreciation rate has reached more than 20%. RMB appreciation would increase the price of export products, reducing the profits of export enterprises, to reduce export enterprises demand for labor. But after the exchange rate reform, the country's employment growth was no significant decline. This paper examines whether the exchange rate reform in July 2005 to promote the relationship between the structural mutations of the RMB exchange rate and employment growth, and the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate changes further empirical analysis of the specific effect of the employment growth. On a theoretical analysis, this article from the foreign trade channel analysis of the impact of exchange rate movements on employment growth. Exchange rate movements by acting on foreign trade thereby affecting employment path: the optimal allocation of resources path, the path of technological progress, the total demand path, labor demand elasticity path. Empirical analysis, in order to better measure the impact of the RMB exchange rate changes on employment growth, considering the exchange rate changes by the export-oriented, import penetration, the total domestic demand, alternative channels of capital for labor impact of employment growth. In order to test whether the exchange rate reform in July 2005 to promote the relationship of the RMB exchange rate and employment growth structural mutations using Chow-test inspection of the exchange rate from January 1994 to March 2010, employment equation, and by introduction of dummy variables to establish the structure test model, further confirmed the exchange rate reform in 2005 to promote the relationship between the structural mutations of the RMB exchange rate and employment growth. This is the most important innovations in the article. In order to test the specific relationship of the RMB exchange rate and employment growth, we selected January 1994 June 2005 July 2005 - March 2010 two time periods, the RMB exchange rate, foreign trade, and employment growth cointegration Analysis. The results show that the RMB exchange rate, foreign trade, and employment growth has kept long-term cointegration relationship. 2005 before the reform, the RMB exchange rate changes on employment growth effect is not significant. After the exchange rate reform in 2005, the effect of the RMB exchange rate changes on employment growth, employment elasticity of the exchange rate through a significant test. Before and after the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate change effect on employment growth occurred, which also verified the Chow-test before the test results. On this basis, the paper analyzes the reasons of structural mutations in the exchange rate reform in 2005. Exchange rate through price signals to promote labor and other economic resources flowing from the trade sector to the non-trade sector, the non-trade sector to promote employment growth in the demand for labor; increase in China's tertiary industry employment of rural labor from the eastern coastal areas in Western District Employment mass transfer; countries Midwest policy support as well as the rapid development of the economy of the Midwest, have contributed to the growth of employment in China. Empirical analysis, this paper also through the establishment of the error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition empirical methods to influence the exchange rate reform in 2005, after the RMB exchange rate of employment growth in the short and long-term impact and degree of influence. Analysis of the pulse response of the RMB exchange rate of employment growth, from the increase in the RMB exchange rate in the long term negative effect on employment growth. This is mainly due to the exchange rate to promote the growth of imports, increased the proportion of imports of capital caused by labor-saving technological progress to reduce the demand for labor. This paper argues that to restart the reform in June 2010, the domestic and international economic and political environment has changed. Further increase international pressure on RMB appreciation. The withdrawal of the export tax rebate policy, the slow recovery of the economy of the Western developed countries, as well as changes in the way of China's economic growth is not conducive to the continued expansion of China's foreign trade. In this paper, the empirical analysis of the results of the exchange rate reform in 2005, made policy recommendations on how to reduce the negative effects of the rise in the RMB exchange rate of employment growth and promote employment growth.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Labor Economics > Countries in the world of labor economic profile > China
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