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Study on Risk Forewarning System of Investment on Expressway Project

Author: WuRui
Tutor: WangHaiSheng
School: Tongji University
Course: Technology Economics and Management
Keywords: Highway Project investment Risk warning Monte Carlo simulation
CLC: F542
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 263
Quote: 6
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Abstract


In recent years , China 's highway construction has made remarkable achievements . Although the success of China 's highway construction to be proud of , but at the same time , we should also see the problems existing in the construction of highway investment . The highway project generally involves a huge investment , and the construction and operation period of long-term and qualitative characteristics , so there is a big risk . With the widening of highway project investment channels in China , the investment risk of the highway project is also more and more attention of its investment entities . How do project evaluation , reduce investment mistakes has become an important issue before the people . Toll expressway project investment risk scientifically and systematically identify , measure and analyze , to establish a comprehensive and effective risk early warning system , not only is the investment in highway projects, the main investment decisions based primarily on the planning and construction of highway development . In view of the above reasons , we draw on existing research results of domestic and international risk early warning system based on combining investment and evaluation of the project to its own characteristics , to build a highway project investment risk early warning system for the highway project investment and development planning provide a more effective decision-making support . First , the characteristics of highway projects , a systematic analysis of the highway project financing risk , risk of the construction period and operation period risk for future more in-depth analysis of the risk of highway project to provide help , and can be used as a highway project investment the basis of risk identification , risk evaluation and risk assessment . Secondly, after analyzing the main early-warning indicators of the highway project , the building of a highway project investment risk early warning system , and Monte Carlo simulation is applied to the risk early warning system to avoid due to the inaccuracy of the forecast with to the investment decision-making mistakes , which provide a more objective and accurate investment decisions by investors, government , help investors and government to make better investment decisions . Finally, the X project , for example , the empirical analysis of highway project risk early warning system to increase the operability of this article .

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CLC: > Economic > Transportation and economic > Land,road transport economy > Chinese land,road transport, economic
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