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Perspective of the Inflationary Environment of Rmb Exchange Rate Pass-through

Author: GeJuan
Tutor: RaoGuoPing
School: Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: Exchange rate pass- Empirical Analysis Inflation Targeting
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 130
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The traditional economic theory suggests that exchange rate movements will be in proportion to reflect the above changes in price levels ; more and more facts prove , the price transmission rate on a country's often incomplete . With the July 2005 began a new round of exchange rate reform , the RMB against the U.S. dollar bilateral exchange rate volatility is more frequent than before , volatility becomes larger . Exchange rate movements may have on what kind of impact the importation and exportation of the product pricing and overall domestic price level , and then how will act on the the production investment structure and the top of the government's macroeconomic policies , which are worthwhile for us to conduct in-depth the analysis . In addition, consider the RMB exchange rate pass-through behavior for China to develop a new monetary policy is equally significant . In this paper, the VAR model and error correction model estimates of exchange rate pass- elastic , revealing the impact of fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate for the domestic price level , and on this basis, the two sub-sample empirical analysis inflationary environment on the exchange rate pass-through effects , so as to one of the goals of monetary policy to stabilize the domestic price level to reduce external shocks , reforms empirical support . In addition to policy analysis , this paper on China inflation targeting and strengthening of monetary policy and exchange rate policy and coordination of new perspectives to put forward their own proposals . The main conclusions of the paper are as follows: 1 , the RMB exchange rate fluctuation our import prices , the impact of prices and consumer prices are incomplete , the pass-through effect in descending order , and most of them have a time lag of about six months to one year . 2 , passing the size of the more obvious effects of domestic monetary policy . In particular, a stable inflation environment , low money supply fluctuations and low exchange rate changes will lead to a lower exchange rate pass-through effect . 3 , in recent years, relatively prudent monetary policy to reduce inflation environment and, indeed, thereby changing the past few years the exchange rate pass-through effect , which happens to verify the existence of the Taylor Rule in China . Thus provide a theoretical basis for China 's inflation targeting .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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