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Objective To study the Epidemiology distribution characteristics and trends of 1975 - 2008 Wuhan residents diabetes, the prevalence of diabetes in the comprehensive evaluation of the city's residents, reveals Wuhan diabetes risk factors and high-risk groups for the development of prevention and treatment of diabetes strategy to provide a reference, provide the basis for the diabetes community intervention, and to lay the foundation for the future evaluation of the effects of diabetes prevention strategies and measures. Methods and content of this study, based in Wuhan, collected the diabetes epidemiology of the city in 1975 - 2008, is divided into three parts Wuhan over the years the prevalence of diabetes research: (1) in 2006 in the city's population diabetes epidemiological data research and analysis of the city's residents diabetes prevalence and distribution characteristics in different populations, and to study the status of glucose abnormalities of the city's residents and its risk factors; (2) of Wuhan City, 1975 -2008 three years continued to collect the diabetes death registration data for retrospective descriptive analysis, exploring the diabetes death distribution trends; (3) to establish the application of gray model and time series methods of diabetes mortality data for 1975 to 2008, Wuhan mortality prediction model to compare the accuracy of the method and predict the effect of disease, and to predict the occurrence of diabetes deaths of Wuhan in 2009 -2015. Results, Wuhan diabetes epidemiology findings in major chronic diseases, diabetes, the body's overall threat level of threat in the rise, which is more serious in the central city; However, far in daily activities caused by restricted The city is more serious than the central city, prompted far city patients with more serious illness. Male fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels than women, especially after the age of 25-30 years old, and 45, suggesting that men start at the age of 25 is necessary to guard against the invasion of diabetes. The survey, Wuhan 4.4% of the diabetes prevalence rate of 8.8%, adjusted prevalence rate was 5.3% prevalence in different parts of the city, which are not consistent, the central city of diabetes adjusted prevalence rate of 5.1%, far city . Wuhan prevalence of diabetes and cultural level was a significant negative correlation between the cultural level, the higher the prevalence of lower both an inverse phenomenon. The overall Wuhan diabetes is not diagnostic rate of 58.5%, 49.0% of the central city, 81.8% in suburbs, in Qingdao, with little overall difference between the results of the 2007 national survey, the far city below the national rural level, which for the future diabetes prevention and treatment focus toward the far city basis. 2, 1975 - 2008 Wuhan diabetes deaths characteristics analysis 1975 - 2008, Wuhan diabetes mortality overall increase of 12.76 times the average annual growth rate of 8.02%, higher than the national rise in speed. With this same period, the Wuhan City, the proportion of the population aged 60 or older increased from 7.86% to 13.98%, and the mortality rate of the elderly population in diabetes rose to 134.45/10 million from 10.24/10 000. Wuhan resident female diabetes mortality than men, but men with diabetes mortality showed a faster growth rate, gradually approaching the female mortality trends. The studies have shown that diabetes caused Wuhan residents of potential life lost years of potential life lost rate showed an upward trend. From the regional distribution of diabetes deaths, a higher mortality rate are higher standards of living and the aging of the population is relatively serious areas. 3, Wuhan diabetes mortality prediction GM (1,1) model in this study can better fit the past 34 years, the mortality sequence, predict the 2009 -2015 diabetes mortality trends results show that Wuhan residents diabetes total The rapid increase in mortality in the past 10 years will continue, diabetic mortality rate in 2010 is expected to reach 28.72/10 million, breakthrough 41.65/10 million in 2015, 2.83-fold increase over 2000. In this study ARIMA (0,1,2) model can be well simulated past 34 years the mortality sequence, predicted 2009 -2015 diabetes mortality trends results show that, Wuhan residents diabetes mortality in the past 10 years inside will still be fast rise of diabetes mortality rate in 2010 is expected to reach 29.00/10 million, will reach 43.42/10 million in 2015, a 2.95-fold increase over 2000. The relative error in the two forecasting methods, ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model average error rate was 6.42%, compared with GM (1,1) model, the average error rate (10.24%) lower. Comprehensive evaluation, Wuhan diabetes mortality trends in line with the index variation, the rate of change is not fast, its data characteristics are suitable for these two forecasting methods to predict, relatively speaking, time series methods fit better, higher prediction accuracy . Conclusions Wuhan diabetes epidemiological data in 2006 and 1975 - 2008 comprehensive analysis of death registration data, along with the aging of the population and the increase of the risk factors, the prevalence of diabetes in Wuhan, mortality rates rise, the overall risk of disease and mortality rates were slightly higher than the national average, roughly equal to the other capital cities, and lower than the municipalities related indicators. The overall prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, the mortality rate is higher in women than men, but men more obvious upward trend. Economically developed regions, the population aging serious areas, prevalence and mortality are significantly higher than in other regions. Overall, the prevalence of diabetes Wuhan characteristics and death characteristics consistent, we should be unified in the development of control strategies to consider. In summary, the prevalence of diabetes in Wuhan, mortality rates are at a high level, and residents of a poor sense of self-control, proposed to strengthen the health education of residents, from the youth stage, proceed from the community, by improving diabetes prevention awareness, improve behavior lifestyles, prevention and control of diabetes. The focus of the prevention and treatment of diabetes in the elderly population, to achieve early detection and timely treatment to reduce the harm to the population of the complications of diabetes. Prevention work, the emphasis in the central city of knowledge promotion, health education, and promoting a healthy lifestyle, to remind the public to timely medical treatment; treatment help diabetics in the suburban area, the government should increase the control of the disease in a timely manner to prevent complications the occurrence and development, reduce the burden of diabetes disease. The main innovation of scholars at home and abroad to carry out a large number of epidemiological studies of diabetes, but for a specific city, and at the same time to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and mortality trends, but rare. In this study, for the first time in chronic disease research will be some kind of disease prevalence, mortality combined simultaneous analysis. Diabetes prevalence and distribution characteristics Wuhan prevalence of diabetes in 2006, the city residents, as well as three distribution and development trend of the diabetic death in 1975 - 2008 has been systematically studied, mastered the city Diabetes, epidemiological characteristics of death, for the development, evaluation of the city's diabetes prevention and control strategies to provide a scientific basis, and provide theoretical support for the diabetes community intervention.
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