Dissertation > Excellent graduate degree dissertation topics show

A Study on the Investment Decision-Making of Telecommunications Industry under the Uncertainty Conditions

Author: ChenCan
Tutor: XinZhanHong
School: Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Real Options Investment decisions Uncertainty Demand Adoption of new technologies Regulation Policy
CLC: F626
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 478
Quote: 1
Read: Download Dissertation

Abstract

After 30 years of development, China's telecommunications industry, especially the high-speed development in the 1990s, has now become a national economy, one of the basic industry, is the key industries in the national economic development strategy and advance the industry. In recent years, China's telecommunications industry annually the amount of investment in fixed assets of more than 200 billion yuan in 2008 reached 295.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.6%. At this stage with the dust settles a new round of telecom restructuring plan in early 2009, issued three 3G licenses, which means that a new round of investment boom is already kicked off. As typical capital and technology-intensive telecommunications industry, rapid technological advances, the amount of the investment, long construction period, regardless of investment is insufficient or excess will be a tremendous impact on the national economy. At the same time, the telecommunications investment activities is a dynamic system, the meantime associated variables are complex and varied, risks and uncertainties, especially whether it is in the construction phase or operational phase runs through the entire investment process, the competitive environment. Therefore the need for the telecommunications industry project investment reasonable scientific decision-making, in order to protect the telecommunications industry, health, stability and sustainable development. Investment decisions in the telecommunications industry combined with traditional investment decision theory for decision-making, which is the most extensive use of the discounted cash flow method (Discounted Cash Flow, DCF). The most prominent defect of this approach can not effectively deal with investment management flexibility and project investment behind the strategic value. However, in today's telecommunications industry is facing a series of uncertainty: the demand for telecom services, the evolving technological progress, the prospects of 3G telecom regulatory policy, which makes telecommunications investment has a greater uncertainty and investment risk. In this case, before applying the DCF method of telecom investment project evaluation will hardly be correct to describe the value of the project. Based on the real options theory, combined with the characteristics of the investment in the telecommunications industry: the irreversibility of the investment, the future state of uncertainty and management flexibility, the telecom industry's investment decision-making under conditions of uncertainty in-depth, systematic study. First, the analysis of the telecommunications industry investment in the status quo, based on use of a number of distributed lag (PolynomialDistributed Lags, PDLs) model of uncertainty affecting investment in the telecommunications industry empirical, pointed out that the demand uncertainty, the uncertainty of technological progress as well as uncertainty of government regulation policy aspects are the main factors affecting the telecommunications investment uncertainty and specific analysis, thus research oriented papers subsequent chapters provide a foothold and starting point of the discourse. Investigated on the basis of uncertain stochastic characteristics of the telecommunications industry needs investment timing decision variables affect the assumptions, establish the optimal timing of investment decision-making model stochastic demand under conditions of uncertainty, consider investing in interactive strategy, The combination of the telecommunications industry, the use of historical data model and the numerical calculation; same time, by examining the impact of model parameters on the timing of investment decisions, investment rules. Third, the use of economic thought marginal cost equals marginal revenue, capacity investment rules, follows the model of investment timing decisions under demand uncertainty exponential inverse demand function, combined with the cost characteristics of the telecommunications industry, the investment capacity decision variables, consider investing in interactive strategy to build the capacity of investment decision model under demand uncertainty affect assumptions. Meanwhile, combine the contents of the study in Chapter given under demand uncertainty, while the model of optimal investment timing and optimal capacity investment decisions. Fourth, closely combined with the characteristics of the state of the telecommunications industry, technological progress, to affect assumptions not consider investing in interactive strategy, research Telecom operators face the problem of how investment decisions in the future generation of the new technology. Practice the efficiency of telecom operators adopted by new technologies, combined with the technological advances the state of the random nature of the investment opportunity for decision-making variables affect assumptions not consider investing in interactive strategy, the establishment of the state of technological progress, as well as new technology adoption of efficiency is not new technology investment decision model under certain conditions, and gives the cumulative probability distribution of new technology adoption time, further to the adoption of new technologies from the micro-level impact on the investment decisions of the telecom operators. Fifth, Regulatory policy uncertainty in the telecommunications investment also has a \investment decision-making model, at the same time, the effects of the model parameters of the investment decision-making. The last part of the Summary and Outlook summarizes the main conclusions of the thesis research is conducted, and future research directions for the deficiencies of the thesis.

Related Dissertations

CLC: > Economic > Posts and Telecommunications economic > Telecommunications > Telecommunications business organization and management
© 2012 www.DissertationTopic.Net Mobile